On Tuesday, the New York Film Critics Circle went with "American Hustle" for Best Picture over the heavily-favored "12 Years a Slave."
12 Years a Slave" is still widely expected to be named Best Picture by this New York based group. Indeed, three of our four Experts, six of our seven Editors, 20 of our Top 24 Users from last year and 70% of All Users are predicting it to prevail. That gives it overwhelming odds of 2 to 5, far ahead of "Gravity," which has the backing of one Expert, two of the Top 24 and 20% of All Users.
However, "Gravity" helmer Alfonso Cuaron is tipped to take Best Director over Steve McQueen ("12 Years a Slave") who won with the Gotham critics on Tuesday. Three Experts, eight Editors, 14 of the Top 24 and 60% of All Users back Cuaron. That translates into odds of 2 to 5 while McQueen is in second with odds of 3 to 1.
The race for Best Actor is led by Matthew McConaughey ("Dallas Buyers Club") with Chiwetel Ejiofor ("12 Years a Slave") a strong second. However, don't discount NYFCC champ Robert Redford ("All is Lost") as a possible spoiler.
But Best Actress looks like a lock for NYFCC winner Cate Blanchett ("Blue Jasmine") with three Experts, seven Editors, 19 of the Top 24 and 80% of All Users predicting her to win. That support gives hrt odds of 1 to 3, far ahead of Sandra Bullock ("Gravity") at 4 to 1
Jared Leto ("Dallas Buyers Club") is likely to add this award to his NYFCC trophy as he has a clear lead in Supporting Actor. His odds of 4 to 5 have him well ahead of both Tom Hanks ("Saving Mr. Banks") and Michael Fassbender ("12 Years a Slave") who have odds of 4 to 1.
Fassbender's co-star Lupita Nyongo has a sizeable lead in Supporting Actress with odds of 11 to 10 compared to 6 to 5 for Oprah Winfrey ("The Butler"). However, Jennifer Lawrence ("American Hustle") could well surprise here as she did at the NYFCC.
Cooper's surprise win meant that "Lincoln" leading man Daniel Day-Lewis, who won over the NYFCC and the Oscars, remains without a lead acting prize from this group. While he claimed the 1986 supporting award for his performances in both "My Beautiful Launderette" and "A Room With a View," he did not prevail for either of his Oscar-winning roles in 1989's "My Left Foot" (Morgan Freeman won for "Driving Miss Daisy") or 2007's "There Will Be Blood" (George Clooney won for "Michael Clayton"). Leonardo DiCaprio ("Django Unchained") picked up a second Supporting Actor award, to join the one he won in 1993 for "What's Eating Gilbert Grape." And character actress Ann Dowd won for her featured performance in "Compliance."
Below, begin your predictions for the NBR Awards by forecasting the winner of Best Picture.
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Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial Oscar predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until Oscar Day. Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.