It's possible that today's SAG Award nominations won't tell us too much about the Oscar nominations ahead. Ever since SAG and AFTRA merged last year, there seems to be less of a magic link between the two kudos. Hell, SAG didn't even nominate Christoph Waltz ("Inglorious Bastards") last year. The only other time that SAG failed to nominate an ultimate Oscar champ was in 2000 and that was just a weird fluke. Even the Golden Globes had accidentally skipped over Marcia Gay Harden ("Pollock"). Last year the Globes not only gave Waltz a bid, they gave him the gold.
Normally, 18 to 19 of the SAG nominees end up on the Oscar list, but last year they only agreed upon 14 contenders. In addition to Waltz, the SAG nominating committee snubbed all of these eventual Academy Award contenders: Joaquin Phoenix ("The Master"), Emmanuelle Riva ("Amour"), Quevenzhane Wallis ("Beasts of the Southern Wild"), Amy Adams ("The Master") and Jacki Weaver ("Silver Linings Playbook").
When winners are unveiled, they agreed upon 3 out 4 of the champs, as they usually do, with Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln") prevailing instead of absent Waltz.
SAG has about 100,000 members, all participants of the acting profession. The merger added 65,000 AFTRA members, who aren't all actors. Hell, up till a few years ago, I belonged to AFTRA because of all of my frequent appearances as a pop-culture commentator on TV. If the SAG Award is supposed to be a peer-group award – and it is – then someone like me should not be voting, frankly. By letting non-actors vote, the SAG award results are thrown. By how much? This is only the second year of post-merger awards, so that answer is unclear.
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Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial Oscar predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until Oscar Day. Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.