First of all, she plays what might be considered the most complicated character of the year. In fact, it’s almost as if she has a dual role. There’s the self-indulgent, pampered and snobbish socialite seen in the New York City flashbacks. Then there’s the self-indulgent, desperate and conflicted single woman trying to reinvent herself in San Francisco. By comparison, Judi Dench in “Philomena” and Emma Thompson in “Saving Mr. Banks” seem surprisingly simple.
Second, the brilliant Blanchett is constantly acting to the camera. Her Jasmine is like an emotional roller coaster, with 100 minutes of ups and downs. She’s screaming and crying, downing martinis and Xanax, and prattling away as if her life (or in this case, Oscar) depended on it. Even in her quieter moments she’s reacting with a vengeance. The critics have taken notice to the loud yet layered performance. Academy members will, too.
2. She’ll probably win the Golden Globe
She may not be a slam dunk, but the odds seem stacked in her favor. Blanchett has long been a favorite of the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn., having first won this category fifteen years ago for “Elizabeth.” She received her second prize for 2007’s “I’m Not There,” and even reaped bids for her non Oscar-nominated work in films like “Bandits” and “Veronica Guerin.” With Woody Allen receiving this year’s Cecil B. DeMille Award, a prize for his latest film’s star performer will be especially sweet. Don’t forget that HFPA members know that Blanchett is the Academy Award frontrunner and will likely want to crown her first. If she gets the Globe, her “Blue” may be as good as Oscar gold.
3. She’ll almost certainly win the SAG Award
Blanchett is a true actor’s actor, and “Blue Jasmine” is an actor’s movie. It’s almost like watching theatre on the screen. (Remember that “Jasmine” has been described as a modern version of the classic drama “A Streetcar Named Desire.”) Sure, she faces competition from Sandra Bullock in “Gravity.” But it’s hard to imagine the thespian group preferring a performance in an outer space action flick. Even if Blanchett somehow loses at the Globes, she’ll quickly rebound with her SAG acceptance speech. And if she wins both awards, it’s almost unfathomable that she’ll leave the Dolby Theatre empty-handed come March.
5. Bullock has too many negatives
Sandra B. in “Gravity” may be Blanchett’s biggest threat, and for good reason. She gives a heart-stopping performance in a rare critically acclaimed, bona fide blockbuster. However, performances in sci-fi/fantasy films seldom win. (Consider the losses of Alec Guiness in “Star Wars,” Melinda Dillon in “Close Encounters of the Third Kind,” Jeff Bridges in “Starman,” Sigourney Weaver in “Aliens” and Ian McKellen in “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.”) Single actor showcases also have a poor record. (Look at the Oscar failures of James Whitmore in “Give ‘em Hell, Harry!,” Tom Hanks in “Cast Away” and James Franco in “127 Hours.”) Finally, Bullock won four years ago for “The Blind Side.” Do voters really want to see her triumph again so soon?
All in all, the rules of awards gravity may keep Bullock grounded (and Blanchett bouncing) on Oscar’s big night.
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Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial Oscar predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until Oscar Day. Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.