Our Experts are missing out on a key development in this year's Oscar race for Best Original Screenplay category -- only two of them have "Her" in first place. Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair) and Guy Lodge (In Contention), I applaud you!
Spike Jonze. Six of them don't even have the script in their predictions despite "Her" having emerged as a serious awards contender in the past month.
First, it took the Best Picture and Best Director prize at the National Board of Review. Then, it tied "Gravity" for the top prize with the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. And, even after it was shutout at the SAG Awards, the film rebounded with good showings at the Golden Globes and the Critics' Choice Awards, netting nominations for Picture and Screenplay with both sets of kudos. Indeed, "Her" is a solid frontrunner for the Original Screenplay honor at the Critics' Choice, having won the most critics' awards of any film with an original script.
Given this trajectory, and with a WGA nomination looking likely as well, "Her" is a lock for at least two Oscar nominations -- Best Picture (aided by the core group of passionate support required to reap a bid) and Best Original Screenplay. It also has reasonable shots at Director, Art Direction, Original Score and Original Song. And don't count out Joaquin Phoenix, who surprised last year with his Best Actor bid for "The Master." Even Scarlett Johansson could become the first performer nominated for a voice-only role.
Its chief competition for the Original Screenplay Oscar is "American Hustle," which 18 of our Experts have in first place. That gives it leading odds of 15/8. While "Blue Jasmine" (11/2) and "Nebraska" (6/1) each have just one Expert backing their bids and "Inside Llewyn Davis" (13/2) has none, all three place higher than "Her" at 15/2 because they are ranked higher by more Experts overall.
So, listen up Experts! It's time for most of you to take a good look at the contest for Original Screenplay and re-evaluate where Jonze factors into this race. Except for Hogan and Lodge -- you two are allowed to go outside and play while the others work on their assignment.
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Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial Oscar predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until Oscar Day. Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.