30 Oscar Experts all predict Alfonso Cuaron ('Gravity') to win Best Director

By Paul Sheehan
By Paul Sheehan
Feb 26 2014 09:00 am
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Oct 23 2014 06:59 am
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While only seven Experts expect "Gravity" to win Best Picture at the Oscars Sunday, all 30 of them favor the chances of that film's helmer Alfonso Cuaron. That overwhelming support gives him odd of 1/10. 

Such a split between Best Picture and Director has happened 22 times in the 85-year history of these awards with the most recent being last year when Ang Lee won his second Oscar for helming the 3-D spectacle "Life of Pi" while "Argo" won Best Picture despite director Ben Affleck being snubbed. That marked only the fourth time in Oscar history that the director of the Best Picture had not been nominated. In the other 18 instances, Best Picture went to one film and Best Director went to another even though the helmer of the big winner was nominated. 

In second place is Steve McQueen, the director of "12 Years a Slave," which 23 of our Experts expect to win Best Picture. He has odds of 33/1 to pull off an upset at the Oscars. 

Just as "American Hustle" is in third place for Best Picture, so too is its director David O. Russell with odds of 50/1.

Matching the longshot odds of 100/1 for their films are Alexander Payne ("Nebraska") and Martin Scorsese ("The Wolf of Wall Street"). 

Cuaron has swept the precursor prizes, including most tellingly that of the Directors Guild of America. In the 65-year history of that guild honor, its winner has gone on to take home the Oscar on 58 occasions. The seven exceptions have been:

1968 -- DGA to Anthony Harvey for "The Lion in Winter" and Oscar to Carol Reed for "Oliver!"

1972 -- DGA to Francis Ford Coppola for "The Godfather" and Oscar to Bob Fosse for "Cabaret"

1985 -- DGA to Steven Spielberg for "The Color Purple" and Oscar to Sydney Pollack for "Out of Africa"

1995 -- DGA to Ron Howard for "Apollo 13" and Oscar to Mel Gibson for "Braveheart"

2000 -- DGA to Ang Lee for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" and Oscar to Steven Soderbergh for "Traffic"

2002 -- DGA to Rob Marshall for "Chicago" and Oscar to Roman Polanski for "The Pianist"

2012 -- DGA to Ben Affleck ("Argo") and Oscar to Ang Lee ("Life of Pi")

Review the individual predictions of our Experts here.  And be sure to check out the Experts' collective rankings and racetrack odds

Get Gold Derby's free news alerts and predictions
 

Who do you think is going to win Best Director? Vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Come back and change your predictions as often as you like till Oscar night, March 2. 

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Inside Track: Oscar Predictions

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Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

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10/1
6 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
12/1
7 Gone GirlGone Girl
12/1
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