Blog: News & Views

New Oscars predictions from 23 top experts

By Gold Derby News Desk
Dec 06 2010 04:36 am

"The Social Network" has picked up a bit more support in the Best Picture race among the 23 experts predicting the Oscars for Gold Derby. According to our latest tally, eight foresee it winning; however a majority (12) say "The King's Speech" will reign. Latest racetrack odds: 6 to 5 for "King's Speech," 8 to 5 for "Social Network."

The 10 films cited by the pundits last week for Best Picture remain the same, but "127 Hours" dropped from third to sixth place, replaced by "Inception."

Twenty-two pundits back Colin Firth ("King's Speech") for Best Actor, giving him overwhelming odds of 1 to 4 over James Franco ("127 Hours") and others. Updated odds for Best Actress: Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") 6 to 5, Natalie Portman ("Black Swan") 11 to 8.

Christian Bale ("The Fighter") increased his lead enormously in his heavyweight bout over Best Supporting Actor. Last week he was backed by eight pundits; now he has 16, giving him 10 to 9 odds. Geoffrey Rush ("King's Speech") still remains in second place with four seers picking him (15 to 8 odds).

Melissa Leo ("The Fighter") increased her lead a bit in the contest for Best Supporting Actress over Helena Bonham Carter ("King's Speech"). Miranda Richardson ("Made in Dagenham") and Dianne Wiest ("Rabbit Hole") fell off our list completely, replaced by Hailie Steinfeld ("True Grit") and Amy Adams ("The Fighter").

See all predictions here, full breakdown of racetrack odds here. Read Tom O'Neil's details predix here.

Our 23 Oscar seers: Thelma Adams (Us Weekly,, Tim Appelo (Hollywood Reporter), Lane Brown (New York Magazine Vulture), Carlos de Abreu (Hollywood News), Scott Feinberg (, Erik Davis (Cinematical), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Joseph Kapsch (Zap2It) Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Kevin Lewin (WENN), Guy Lodge (InContention), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, L.A. Times The Envelope), Kevin Polowy (NextMovie), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood, Indie Wire), Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters), Chuck Walton (Fandango), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

"The King's Speech" — Appelo, Brown, de Abreu, Hammond, Karger, Lewin, Musto, Pond, Sheehan, Thompson, Tourtellotte, Wloszczyna
"The Social Network" — Davis, Feinberg, Kapsch, O'Neil, Polowy, Stone, Walton, Wells
"Black Swan" — Adams
"Inception" — Simanton
"The Way Back" — Lodge

Colin Firth, "The King's Speech" — Adams, Appelo, Brown, de Abreu, Feinberg, Hammond, Kapsch, Karger, Lewin, Lodge, Musto, O'Neil, Polowy, Pond, Sheehan, Simanton, Stone, Thompson, Tourtellotte, Walton, Wells, Wloszczyna
Jeff Bridges, "True Grit" — Davis

Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right" — Appelo, de Abreu, Hammond, Karger, Musto, Polowy, Pond, Thompson, Tourtellotte, Wloszczyna
Natalie Portman, "Black Swan" — Adams, Brown, Davis, Feinberg, Kapsch, Lewin, O'Neil, Sheehan, Simanton, Stone, Walton, Wells
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone" — Lodge

Christian Bale, "The Fighter" — Adams, Appelo, Brown, Davis, de Abreu, Feinberg, Hammond, Kapsch, O'Neil, Polowy, Pond, Sheehan, Thompson, Tourtellotte, Walton, Wells
Ed Harris, "The Way Back" — Lodge
Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech" — Karger, Lewin, Musto, Stone,  Wloszczyna
John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone" — Simanton

Melissa Leo, "The Fighter" — Adams, Appelo, Brown, Hammond, Lodge, O'Neil, Sheehan, Stone, Tourtellotte
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech" — de Abreu, Kapsch, Karger, Lewin, Musto, Walton, Wloszczyna
Amy Adams, "The Figher" — Thompson
Dale Dickey, "Winter's Bone" — Simanton
Hallie Steinfeld, "True Grit" — Feinberg, Pond
Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom" — Polwoy, Wells


Tom O'Neil's Updated, 100% Accurate Oscar Predictions

18 Experts's Oscar Predictions: Best Picture (Nov. 28)

18 Experts's Oscar Predictions: Best Actor and Actress (Nov. 28)

18 Experts's Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor and Actress (Nov. 28)

Racetrack Odds on Oscar Winners (Nov. 28)

VIDEOS: Oscar Predictions with Steve Pond (The Wrap)


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