SAG vs. AMPAS: By the numbers

By Paul Sheehan
By Paul Sheehan
Dec 17 2010 23:16 pm
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Just how many of the Screen Actors Guild Awards nominees will go on to contend at the Oscars? The 2100 SAG members who sit on the nominating committee have proven to be remarkably prescient at predicting which performances will find favor with the 1205 voters in the acting branch of the academy.

Last year, a staggering 19 of the 20 SAG nominees also reaped Oscar bids. The only difference of opinion came in the Supporting Actress race: SAG went with Diane Kruger ("Inglorious Basterds") while Oscar nominators were more impressed by late-entry Maggie Gyllenhaal ("Crazy Heart"). All four of the SAG champs -- leads Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") and Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side") and supporting players Mo'Nique ("Precious") and Christoph Waltz ("Inglorious Basterds") -- also prevailed at the Oscars.

In 2008, 18 of the 19 SAG acting nominees repeated at the Oscars. As double SAG nominee Kate Winslet was bumped up by the Oscars from supporting to lead for "The Reader," she was denied a lead Oscar bid for "Revolutionary Road." She won both awards for "The Reader" while Meryl Streep took the SAG lead prize for "Doubt." With that promotion of Winslet, the Oscars had room for the addition of Marisa Tomei ("The Wrestler") in the supporting race -- she lost to Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Christina Barcelona"). Michael Shannon ("Revolutionary Road") knocked SAG supporting nominee Dev Patel of "Slumdog Millionaire" out of contention at the Oscars -- they both lost their respective races to Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight"). The lead actor roster matched up perfectly and Sean Penn ("Milk") won both prizes.

Three years ago, 15 of the 20 SAG nominees went on to compete at the Oscars. The only SAG lead actress nominee not needing a babysitter come Oscar night was Angelina Jolie ("A Mighty Heart"), whose spot went to "The Savages" star Laura Linney. While Julie Christie ("Away From Her") prevailed at SAG, Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") was the champ on Oscar night. The supporting actress race also went four for five with SAG nominee Catherine Keener ("Into the Wild") replaced by Saoirse Ronan of "Atonement." While Ruby Dee ("American Gangster") won over the SAG voters, it was Tilda Swinton ("Michael Clayton") who took home the Oscar.

The 2007 lead actor Oscar race went three for five as SAG nominees and relative newcomers Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") and Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") were replaced by Hollywood vets Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah"). Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") won both awards. While SAG supporting nominee Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men") was replaced by Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War"), it was Javier Bardem ("No Country") who took both races.

In 2006, a staggering 19 of the 20 SAG nominees contended at the Oscars with the one variation coming from the same film -- "The Departed" -- as SAG supporting nominee Leonardo DiCaprio was replaced at Oscar time by Mark Wahlberg. And the supporting actor race was the only one with different winners -- Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls") at SAG and Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine") at the Oscars. Forest Whitaker ("The Last King of Scotland"), Helen Mirren ("The Queen") and Jennifer Hudson ("Dreamgirls") won both awards.

 
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Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
9/2
2 UnbrokenUnbroken
15/2
3 BirdmanBirdman
15/2
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
8/1
5 SelmaSelma
9/1
6 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
10/1
7 Gone GirlGone Girl
16/1
8 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
16/1
9 WhiplashWhiplash
25/1
10 InterstellarInterstellar
25/1
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