'The Social Network' favored in Oscars odds but watch out for 'The Fighter'

By Paul Sheehan
By Paul Sheehan
Dec 20 2010 20:32 pm
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In the wake of winning over the critics on both coasts, "The Social Network" is now ahead in the race for Best Picture according to our 23 pundits. An even dozen among our panel predict it to prevail, while only nine now foresee "The King's Speech" reigning. Latest racetrack odds: 9 to 5 for "Social Network," 12 to 5 for "King's Speech." "The Fighter" has vaulted from ninth to third place and landed odds of 4 to 1. The 10 films cited by the pundits for Best Picture remain the same, but "Inception" dropped from third to fifth place while "127 Hours" is now down the hole in ninth position.

Twenty-one of of our pundits predict "The Social Network" helmer David Fincher to prevail as Best Director, giving him odds of 15 to 8 over second-place finisher Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech") who is at 14 to 5.

All 23 pundits back Colin Firth ("King's Speech") for Best Actor, giving him overwhelming odds of 1 to 10 over James Franco ("127 Hours") and others. Winner of the battle for Best Actress keeps shifting with Natalie Portman ("Black Swan") now a 7 to 5 favorite to prevail over Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right").

In the bout over Best Supporting Actor, Christian Bale ("The Fighter") picked up the support of two more pundits with 18 now predicting him to win with odds of 5 to 4. Geoffrey Rush ("King's Speech") still remains in second place with four seers picking him (11 to 8 odds).

Melissa Leo ("The Fighter") increased her lead in the contest for Best Supporting Actress with 15 pundits now predicting her to prevail over Helena Bonham Carter ("King's Speech") giving her odds of 11 to 10. However, this race could shift again as Leo's on-screen nemisis Amy Adams is coming on strong. 

See all the predictions here and a full breakdown of the racetrack odds here.

Our 23 Oscar seers: Thelma Adams (Us Weekly, Thelmadams.com), Tim Appelo (Hollywood Reporter), Lane Brown (New York Magazine Vulture), Carlos de Abreu (Hollywood News), Scott Feinberg (ScottFeinberg.com), Erik Davis (Cinematical), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Joseph Kapsch (Zap2It) Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Kevin Lewin (WENN), Guy Lodge (InContention), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, L.A. Times The Envelope), Kevin Polowy (NextMovie), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood, Indie Wire), Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters), Chuck Walton (Fandango), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

BEST PICTURE
"The Social Network" — Brown, Davis, Feinberg, Hammond, Kapsch, Musto, O'Neil, Polowy, Stone, Tourtellotte, Walton, Wells
"The King's Speech" — Adams, Appelo, de Abreu, Karger, Lewin, Pond, Sheehan, Thompson, Wloszczyna
"Inception" — Simanton
"The Fighter" — Lodge

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, "The Social Network" — Adams, Appelo, Brown, Davis, Feinberg, Hammond, Kapsch, Karger, Lodge, Musto, O'Neil, Polowy, Pond, Sheehan, Simanton, Stone, Thompson, Tourtellotte, Walton, Wells, Wloszczyna
Christopher Nolan, "Inception"—  Lewin

BEST ACTOR
Colin Firth, "The King's Speech" — Adams, Appelo, Brown, Davis, de Abreu, Feinberg, Hammond, Kapsch, Karger, Lewin, Lodge, Musto, O'Neil, Polowy, Pond, Sheehan, Simanton, Stone, Thompson, Tourtellotte, Walton, Wells, Wloszczyna

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right" — Adams, Appelo, de Abreu, Hammond, Karger, Polowy, Pond, Thompson, Tourtellotte, Wloszczyna
Natalie Portman, "Black Swan" —Brown, Davis, Feinberg, Kapsch, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Sheehan, Simanton, Stone, Walton, Wells
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone" — Lodge

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, "The Fighter" — Adams, Appelo, Brown, Davis, de Abreu, Feinberg, Hammond, Kapsch, Karger, Lodge, Musto,  O'Neil, Pond, Sheehan, Thompson, Tourtellotte, Walton, Wells, Wloszczyna
Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech" — Lewin, Polowy, Simanton, Stone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Melissa Leo, "The Fighter" — Adams, Appelo, Brown, Davis, Hammond, Karger, Musto, O'Neil, Pond, Sheehan, Stone, Tourtellotte, Walton, Wells, Wloszczyna
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech" — de Abreu, Kapsch, Lewin, Simanton
Hallie Steinfeld, "True Grit" — Feinberg
Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom" — Lodge, Polwoy

 
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Inside Track: Oscar Predictions

Oscars predictions

Earliest Oscars Predictions Ever

Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
9/2
2 UnbrokenUnbroken
13/2
3 BirdmanBirdman
15/2
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
8/1
5 Gone GirlGone Girl
12/1
6 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
12/1
7 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
12/1
8 InterstellarInterstellar
14/1
9 The Grand Budapest HotelThe Grand Budapest Hotel
33/1
10 SelmaSelma
50/1
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