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Blog: News & Views

Poor Amy Poehler: Will this year's Globes co-host FINALLY win?

By Marcus James Dixon
By Marcus James Dixon
Jan 03 2014 06:42 am

In the world of TV awards, there are winners... and then there's Amy Poehler.

The "Parks and Recreation" star has amassed so many nominations for her TV work without a single win that she even created a Loser's Party following last year's Emmys where she and fellow also-rans (like Jon Hamm) "celebrated."

This month, Poehler and BFF Tina Fey return to emcee the Golden Globes for the second year in a row. Will 2014 be the year Poehler finally takes home a trophy too?

Poehler is up for TV Comedy Actress for the third consecutive year for her starring role of Leslie Knope on "Parks and Rec." She faces off against Lena Dunham ("Girls"), Edie Falco ("Nurse Jackie"), Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("Veep") and Zooey Deschanel ("New Girl"). Gold Derby's Experts, Editors and Users have Poehler in second place with 9/2 odds behind Louis-Dreyfus with a leading odds of 4/11.

At last year's ceremony she lost to Dunham and in 2012 she was bested by Laura Dern ("Enlightened"). However, over at the Emmys, Poehler is an even bigger loser.

She netted two Emmy nods for her supporting work on "Saturday Night Live" (2008, 2009) and an additional six for writing, producing and starring in "Parks and Rec" (2010 - 2013). Add in her bid last year for co-hosting the "70th Annual Golden Globe Awards" and that's a whopping nine Emmy losses.

Her other awards failures include: one SAG loss (2013),  three WGA losses (2012-2013) and three Television Critics Assn. Awards losses (2011-2013).

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Poehler is so beloved in the industry, it's shocking to hear that she's never won a TV award and given an acceptance speech at the podium. Her mantel isn't completey bare though, as she won an MTV Movie Award in 2009 for Best WTF Moment for "Baby Mama." Congrats...?

Find out if Poehler can finally win when the Golden Globes air on NBC on Jan. 12. Meanwhile, vote now for the TV Comedy Actress category using our easy drag-and-drop menu, and then watch NBC's new hilarious Globes promo featuring Poehler and Fey.

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Are we underestimating 'Captain Phillips' at the Oscars?

By Tom O'Neil
By Tom O'Neil
Jan 03 2014 05:05 am

Why, oh, why did Gold Derby's Oscar "Experts" (including me) recently underestimate "Captain Phillips"? And … hmmm … are we doing it again? That is, can it actually hijack the Best Picture gold?

Just prior to the unveiling of nominations for Golden Globes, SAG and Critics' Choice Awards, "Captain Phillips" ranked sixth in our rankings that combine the Best Picture predix of all of our Experts. It had started out in fourth place back in October when the movie opened to boffo b.o. ($104 million U.S., $209 million worldwide) and hosanna reviews (scoring 93 at RottenTomatoes). But then it slowly started to dip in our prediction charts once December came along and we got bored with it, getting bumped by "Saving Mr. Banks" and "The Wolf of Wall Street." (See the changes for yourself by going to our Best Pic chart page. Scroll down and play with the calendar dates.)

Now "Captain Phillips" is back up to number four thanks to its impressive showing at the precursor kudos, which woke up our Experts. It scored four key Golden Globe nominations: Best Drama Picture, Director (Paul Greengrass), Actor (Tom Hanks) and Supporting Actor (Barkhad Abdi). Hanks and Abdi also popped up among the SAG Award bids. If you believe – as many pundits do – that the Critics' Choice Awards are a sneaky hint of upcoming Oscars, then consider this. "#aptain Phillips#" scored all those key categories needed to win Best Picture, including Director, Screenplay and Editing plus nods for Hanks for Barkhad.

"Captain Phillips" also made the AFI list of Top 10 flicks of 2013 and it's nommed for Best Dramatic Picture at the People's Choice Awards.

Get the hint? Does all this make you want to rethink your predix? Right now the pundit consensus is that one of three films can bag the Oscar for Best Picture: "American Hustle," "12 Years a Slave" or "Gravity." But again we may be underestimating the film in the fourth spot on our list.

"Captain Phillips" has many of the classic Best Pic touches. It feels important. It's based upon real events and, in this case, a topic – piracy – that continues to threaten America's stance on international waters.

Every serious Oscarologist knows that voters often choose their Best Pictures based upon who directs them. Paul Greengrass is an academy darling (nominated for "United 93" in 2006) who, many believe, is due for Oscar glory.

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Grammys grudge rematch: Tony Bennett vs Michael Buble

By David Schnelwar
By David Schnelwar
Jan 02 2014 11:36 am

In the Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album category's twenty-two-year history, 11 wins went to Tony Bennett. Other artists have won only when Bennett was not nominated with one exception -- in 2009 Bennett's album "A Swingin' Christmas" lost to Michael Buble's concert disc "Michael Buble vs Madison Square Garden." Most people assume Bennett finally lost because no holiday album has ever won this category. After all, Bennett had defeated Buble twice previously in this race.

While Buble has won Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album two other times -- "Call Me Irresponsible" (2007) and "Crazy Love" (2010) -- Bennett was not a nominee either of those years. Last year, his album "Christmas" lost to Paul McCartney's "Kisses On The Bottom." Like Bennett, Buble succumbed to the holiday album jinx.

This year marks the first time Bennett and Buble have squared off since Buble stopped Bennett's undefeated streak in 2009.

Buble's "To Be Loved" has four original songs including "It's A Beautiful Day" and ten covers. Buble's winning discs in 2007 and 2010 also received corresponding nominations for Best Male Pop Vocal Performance for "Everything" and "Haven't Met You Yet" respectively. No songs from "To Be Loved" have been recognized in other Grammy fields. However, with the backing of two Experts, three Editors and three-quarters of Users which translates into leading odds of 2/5

Bennett is Grammy royalty. He has a total of 16 Grammys including wins for Record of the Year for "I Left My Heart In San Francisco," in 1962 and Album of the Year for "MTV Unplugged" in 1994. And he was feted with the Grammy Lifetime Achievement Award in 2001.

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Bennett returns to this race with his third "Duets" disc titled "Viva Duets," which recycles previously recorded songs from his two previous "Duets" albums with a Latin artist. So, instead of listening to "For Once In My Life" with Stevie Wonder, you can now listen to the same song with Marc Anthony. When Bennett won for each of his first "Duets" albums, he also claimed corresponding wins for Best Pop Collaboration (with Wonder in 2006 and Amy Winehouse in 2011). But "Viva Duets" did not crossover to the Pop Field or receive any other nominations. With the support of one Editor and one quarter of Users, he has odds of 10/3 to make it an even dozen wins in this category. 

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Why are Producers Guild nominations so good at previewing Oscars?

By Paul Sheehan
By Paul Sheehan
Jan 02 2014 10:30 am

Although the Oscars shifted to a sliding scale two years ago, the PGA has stuck with 10 nominees for Best Picture. That has helped it maintain an 80% success rate at predicting the eventual slate of Oscar contenders.

Over the past four years, 32 of the PGA nominees have gone on to reap Oscar bids (as detailed below). As its membership also include TV producers, this may skew the slate of nominated fare.

However, the PGA uses the same system as the Oscars -- the preferential ballot -- for the final vote. All four of the most recent winners of the PGA prize also won Best Picture. Indeed, the guild and academy have agreed on 17 of the most recent 24 Best Picture champs.

This year, eight of our predicted top 10 contenders at the Oscars made the cut with these kudos, including frontrunners "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity" as well as "American Hustle," "Captain Phillips,"  "The Wolf of Wall Street," "Nebraska," "Saving Mr. Banks" and "Her."  

Two of our predicted Oscar nominees -- "Inside Llewyn Davis," (#7 on our odds chart) and popular fare "The Butler" (#10) -- were snubbed in favor of SAG ensemble nominee  "Dallas Buyers Club" (#11) and "Blue Jasmine" (#13 ).

RELATED: Is Oscar winner among PGA nominees for Best Documentary?

RELATED: PGA TV nominees include Emmy champs 'Breaking Bad' and 'Modern Family'

Of last year's PGA contenders, eight of them also reaped bids for the top Academy Award -- "Argo," "Beasts of the Southern Wild," "Django Unchained," "Life of Pi," "Lincoln," "Les Miserables," "Silver Linings Playbook" and "Zero Dark Thirty." Rounding out the roster at the PGA were "Moonrise Kingdom" and "Skyfall." The guild snubbed the French-language "Amour," which netted a Best Picture nod from the academy. "Argo" prevailed with the PGA before taking home the Oscar. 

In 2011, the PGA predicted seven of the eventual nine Best Picture contenders, including "The Artist" which won with both groups. The PGA filled out their slate with popular pictures "Bridesmaids," "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" and "The Ides of March" while the Oscars went with "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" and "The Tree of Life."

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Producers Guild unveils nominees for Best Picture: '12 Years a Slave,' 'Gravity' and ...

By Paul Sheehan
By Paul Sheehan
Jan 02 2014 10:00 am

Producers Guild nominations PGA Oscars movies entertainment news 13579086

The Producers Guild of America unveiled its 10 nominees for Best Picture on Thursday: "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity" as well as "American Hustle", "Captain Phillips,"  "The Wolf of Wall Street," "Nebraska," "Saving Mr. Banks," "Dallas Buyers Club," "Blue Jasmine" and "Her." 

Among those films snubbed by the PGA were critical darling and Golden Globe and Critics' Choice nominee "Inside Llewyn Davis," (#7 on our chart) and popular fare "The Butler" (#10) which had reaped a SAG ensemble bid.

The guild and Oscars have agreed on 17 of the most recent 24 Best Picture champs, including the last six in a row. Key to the import of this precursor prize is that it picks a winner using the same kind of counting as the Oscars -- the preferential ballot. 

RELATEDWhy are Producers Guild nominations so good at previewing Oscars?

RELATED: Is Oscar winner among PGA nominees for Best Documentary?

RELATED: PGA TV nominees include Emmy champs 'Breaking Bad' and 'Modern Family'

The PGA also revealed the five nominees for Best Animated Feature: "The Croods," "Despicable Me 2," "Epic," "Frozen," and "Monsters University." All but "Epic" make our list of potential Oscar nominees. However, "The Wind Rises" -- which we have in second behind "Frozen" for the Oscar -- was snubbed by the PGA. 

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Last year, the PGA previewed four of the five Oscar nominees, citing eventual Oscar winner "Brave," as well as "Wreck-It Ralph," "Frankenweenie" and "ParaNorman." It filled the race with "Rise of the Guardians" while the academy went with "The Pirates! Band of Misfits."

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News Nuggets: Will Oscar voters snub Meryl Streep for Amy Adams?

By Chris Beachum
By Chris Beachum
Jan 02 2014 07:50 am

entertainment news nuggetsChristopher Rosen and Mike Hogan speculate that Meryl Streep ("August: Osage County") might be snubbed by Oscar voters in favor of Amy Adams ("American Hustle"). They say the four-time nominee had a great 2013 run with her other film work in "Man of Steel" and "Her". Her recent success is compared to current "queen" Jennifer Lawrence, but "Adams might be better at the moment." The duo believes Cate Blanchett ("Blue Jasmine"), Sandra Bullock ("Gravity"), Judi Dench ("Philomena"), and Emma Thompson ("Saving Mr. Banks") are locked into their slots, and Streep might be vulnerable with mediocre reviews for her film. Huffington Post.

entertainment news nuggetsCalling it "the biggest PBS phenomenon since 'Sesame Street,'" the fourth season of "Downton Abbey is previewed before its premiere episode Sunday night. The previous season shocked audiences with the deaths of Sybil and Matthew, and the new season "promises to be nothing short of shocking, exciting, and traumatic." It picks up six months after the death of Matthew and includes guest appearances by Shirley MacLaine and Paul Giamatti. Entertainment Weekly.

entertainment news nuggetsPete Hammond interviews Dame Judi Dench about her role in the new film "Philomena." She is a past Oscar champ ("Shakespeare in Love," 1998) among her six nominations and is favored for another bid this year. In the true-life Stephen Frears movie, she plays a woman who had to give up her child for adoption and starts looking for him 50 years later. Deadline.

entertainment news nuggetsWho are the rising stars to watch in 2014? A new photo gallery features Dane DeHaan ("The Amazing Spider-Man 2"), Elle Fanning ("Maleficent"), Sarah Gadon ("Map to the Stars"), Julia Garner ("Sin City: A Dame to Kill For"), Karen Gillan ("Guardians of the Galaxy"), Joel Kinnaman ("RoboCop"), Jack Reynor ("Transformers: Age of Extinction"), Alan Ritchson ("Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles"), Kodi Smit-McPhee ("Dawn of the Planet of the Apes"), and Sebastian Stan ("Captain America: The Winter Soldier").  Xfinity.

entertainment news nuggetsVeteran character actor James Avery dies in Los Angeles on Tuesday. Alfonso Ribeiro, who played his son on "The Fresh Prince of Bel Air," tweeted, "I'm deeply saddened to say that James Avery has passed away. He was a second father to me. I will miss him greatly." Avery had recent roles on "Grey's Anatomy," "Harry's Law," and "The Closer." TV Line.

entertainment news nuggetsSteve Pond reports that studios are being warned about using misleading terms in their Golden Globe ads. Hollywood Foreign Press head Theo Kingma tells them, "A nomination is not a win" and to not refer to nominees as winners in their advertising. While not specifically identifying culprits, both "August: Osage County" and "Philomena" used those words in recent TV spots. The Wrap.

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Will Stephen Colbert follow surprise Emmy win with another Grammy?

By Daniel Montgomery
By Daniel Montgomery
Jan 02 2014 06:42 am

grammys stephen colbert america again

After finally snapping "The Daily Show's" Best Variety Series streak at the Emmys in September, will Stephen Colbert continue his awards romp at the Grammys?  He is nominated for Best Spoken Word Album for the audiobook of his latest patriotic masterpiece, "America Again: Re-Becoming the Greatness We Never Weren't." 

If he wins, he'll have a bookend to his Comedy Album Grammy from 2009 for "A Colbert Christmas." However, he's at risk of splitting the vote with three other comedians in his category: actors Carol Burnett ("Carrie and Me") and Billy Crystal ("Still Foolin' 'Em"), as well as comic essayist David Sedaris ("Let's Explore Diabetes With Owls").

That could clear the way for legendary 94-year-old folk singer Pete Seeger, who currently leads our racetrack odds for "The Storm King," his collection of stories and poems. Seeger has won three competitive Grammys to date: one for Musical Album for Children and two for Traditional Folk Album. He also received the Lifetime Achievement Award in 1992.

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Last year, another folk singer -- Janis Ian -- won this race over Bill Clinton and Ellen DeGeneres, as well as Michelle Obama's "American Grown," which was performed by various artists.

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Can 'American Hustle' pull off an Oscar 'Sting'?

By Matt Noble
By Matt Noble
Jan 02 2014 06:36 am

One of this year's Oscar frontrunners is “American Hustle;” a film set in the Seventies about an American con. It can’t help but evoke memories of “The Sting,” a film made in 1973 but set in the Thirties about an American con. For “The Sting” -- which has one of the most satisfying endings in cinema -- the biggest hustle was winning Best Picture. Can its modern-day equivalent pull off the same feat this year?

Let’s compare them. 

The Players
Headlining “The Sting” were the two biggest movie stars of the time -- Robert Redford and Paul Newman. While it could be hard to argue anyone in Hollywood today is of their stature, "American Hustle" is packed full of A-listers: Jennifer Lawrence, Bradley Cooper, Christian Bale and Amy Adams.

“The Sting” was directed by George Roy Hill who had been nominated four years early for the first film to co-star Redford and Newman, “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.” “American Hustle” was directed by David O. Russell who was nominated last year for “Silver Linings Playbook,” which paired Lawrence and Cooper together for the first time and in 2010 for “The Fighter,” which featured Bale and Adams. 

The Set-Up
“The Sting” won Best Picture at the National Board of Review while “American Hustle” won the top prize from the New York Film Critics. “The Sting” was snubbed at the Globes, earning only a screenplay nomination while American Hustle” pulled off a last minute switcheroo to the comedy/musical field and picked up seven nominations. 

The Hook
“The Sting” was a feel good, fun film that stood in stark contrast to the dark horror of rival nominee “The Exorcist.” It had an ending that got people talking. While the final scene in “American Hustle” may not be as iconic, it has the same hook -- a satisfying film that’s fun to watch up against darker fare about slavery and space exploration. 

The Tale
“The Sting” was the number one film of 1973, earning a whopping $156 million. “American Hustle” has taken in $60 million and is on track to break the $100 million barrier. As that falls well short of  the $250 million made by “Gravity," “Hustle” will need to find momentum elsewhere, by winning precursor prizes. 

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The Wire
The best forecast for the Oscar hopes of "American Hustle" will be when nominations are announced on Jan. 16. “The Sting” tied “The Exorcist” for most nominations with 10 apiece. “American Hustle” will be battling “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity” for that record. 

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Will Nicole Holofcener sneak into Oscar screenplay race for 'Enough Said'?

By Daniel Montgomery
By Daniel Montgomery
Jan 02 2014 06:32 am

oscars nicole holofcener james gandolfini

Nicole Holofcener has directed five films, all liked by critics, but none have made it to the Oscars. Her latest, "Enough Said," may be the best opportunity yet for one of her movies to break through, but can she herself sneak into the race for Best Original Screenplay?

"Enough Said" is her best-reviewed film, with 96% freshness on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 score on MetaCritic. It's also her biggest moneymaker, with more than $17 million in box office receipts, outdoing her previous best, "Friends with Money," which made $13 million in the US. But those aren't the main reasons it has gotten extra attention from the industry.

It's the death of star James Gandolfini that has put the film in the spotlight. The actor passed away suddenly last June at age 51, and "Enough Said" is one of his last film roles. Because it was also a successful creative departure for him – the erstwhile Tony Soprano plays a sensitive TV archivist – he has received posthumous nominations from the SAG Awards, Critics' Choice Awards, Independent Spirit Awards, and various regional critics groups, winning in Boston. Now he has a chance for his first and probably only Oscar nomination.

But might his writer-director join him when Oscar nominations are announced?

It's sad that it has taken Gandolfini's death to bring greater attention to Holofcener. I think she's one of the best filmmakers currently working and one of the few who consistently tells great stories about women. She has directed actresses Jennifer Aniston ("Friends with Money"), Emily Mortimer ("Lovely & Amazing"), and now Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("Enough Said") to some of their best performances, and her ongoing collaboration with Catherine Keener, who has been in all of her films, ranks up there with Scorsese and DiCaprio, though this pair's output is much more low-key.

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The film is probably a nonstarter for Best Picture, and Holofcener doesn't have much of a chance for Best Director, but there's still hope for her in the Original Screenplay category. Because there are 10 writing nominees every year – five original and five adapted – these are the categories where we often see films recognized even if there's little or no support for them anywhere else. The screenplay races have been especially good to character-driven independent films.

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Inside Track: Oscar Predictions

Oscars predictions

Earliest Oscars Predictions Ever

Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
9/2
2 BirdmanBirdman
6/1
3 UnbrokenUnbroken
15/2
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
8/1
5 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
10/1
6 Gone GirlGone Girl
14/1
7 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
14/1
8 InterstellarInterstellar
16/1
9 The Grand Budapest HotelThe Grand Budapest Hotel
33/1
10 SelmaSelma
50/1
See complete statistics by Clicking Here

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Hot Links from the Web
Video: Here's How to Make Award Predictions at Gold Derby

Oscars 2014: Key Categories

BEST PICTURE:
Can TIFF champ 'The Imitation Game' overtake early frontrunner 'Boyhood'?
 
BEST DIRECTOR:
Past nominee Bennett Miller ('Foxcatcher') vs. rookies Linklater, Jolie. 
 
BEST ACTOR:
Two first-timers:  Michael Keaton ('Birdman') vs. Steve Carell ('Foxcatcher').

 
BEST ACTRESS:
Oscar champ Reese Witherspoon ('Wild') vs also-rans Julianne Moore & Amy Adams.
 
BEST S. ACTOR:
Vet J.K. Simmons ('Whiplash') extends lead over Mark Ruffalo, ('Foxcatcher').
 
BEST S. ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette ('Boyhood') far in front for her 12-year commitment to film. 
,
 
Predictions
See how each of these groups ranks the nominees for Best Picture according to likelihood of winning. Click through the links on top of that page to see more categories:
Here's the breakdown of their collective views:
See which ponies the real pros (Gold Derby's editorial staffers) are betting on:
Voting
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