Blog: News & Views
Being professional performers, Ted Stevenson and Samantha Massell may very well snag an Oscar someday, but meantime they proved they're winners by crushing all rivals in our Oscar Predictions Video Contest.
"It's a crazy Best Picture race," Pete Hammond (Deadline) and I concur in our podcast chat. "As far as we've come in this awards season, it seems like we've come back to square one. We've got a real horse race as you say at Gold Derby. Three movies are in a see-saw battle and it seems there's no consensus.
"One thing I've noticed from all of these award shows I've been going to is that they all seem to end with Steve McQueen making an acceptance speech up on stage and that's why I think '12 Years a Slave' may be slightly in front right now. But who knows? 'American Hustle' won that SAG ensemble award and we all know that the actors branch is the biggest in the academy, so they could have a big say in pushing that picture forward. 'Gravity' has tremendous support from below the line -- or at least we think that because it's such a dazzling technical achievement."
, Alfonso Cuaron
, Robin Williams
, The Crazy Ones
, Getting On
, The Office
, Laurie Metcalf
, Hello Ladies The Movie
, Chris ODowd
, Family Tree
, Christopher Guest
, Stephen Merchant
, Saturday Night Live
, Tina Fey
, Melissa McCarthy
, Cecily Strong
, Julianna Margulies
, Stana Katic
, Henry Winkler
, Sasha Alexander
, Bruce Dern
, Garry Marshall
, Betsy Brandt
, Julie Delpy
, Brad Garrett
, The Simpsons
, 12 Years a Slave
, American Hustle
, Alone Yet Not Alone
, Ewan McGregor
, Tom Hardy
, Charlotte Rampling
, Scarlett Johansson
, Benedict Cumberbatch
, Richard Gere
, Peter Sarsgaard
, Greta Gerwig
Scott Feinberg reports that the song "Alone Yet Not Alone" is indeed eligible as an Oscar contender despite allegations it should be disqualified. Co-written by former Academy governor Bruce Broughton, the nomination set off outrage among some people because it broke advertising rules. The independent production only screened in one Encino theater and did not purchase advertising. A private investigator was hired by a snubbed rival, but upon reviewing the evidence, Academy officials say the song remains in the race. Hollywood Reporter.
Glenn Whipp offers his analysis of Oscar's Best Picture category and agrees it is a tight race between three films. He points out weaknesses for each candidate. "Gravity" doesn't have a screenplay nod, and only two films in the past 50 years won without it ("The Sound of Music" and "Titanic"). "12 Years a Slave" is favored in only two other categories (adapted screenplay, supporting actress), so it might be weak across the board. "American Hustle" is not favored for any of the four actors and would also have an overall low wins total. L.A. Times.
If "Gravity" wins the Oscar as Best Picture, it would be the second highest grossing box office hit of the past decade. The Alfonso Cuaron film has earned $258 domestic, trailing only "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," which raked in $377 million in 2003. The other recent movies making over $100 million: "Slumdog Millionaire" ($141 million), "Argo" ($136 million), "The King's Speech" ($135 million), "The Departed" ($132 million), and "Million Dollar Baby" ($100 million). Awards Daily.
Nathaniel Rogers bemoans the top 10 working actors who are most in need of their first Oscar nominations. The list begins with Donald Sutherland and also includes Richard Gere, Isabelle Huppert, Ewan McGregor, Peter Sarsgaard, Charlotte Rampling, Scarlett Johansson, Gael Garcia Bernal, Kirsten Dunst, and Gong Li. Of the rising stars, he mentions Benedict Cumberbatch, Greta Gerwig, Tom Hardy, and Mia Wasikowska. Film Experience.
The first presenters are announced for the Writers Guild Awards scheduled for February 1. The event will be hosted by comedian Brad Garrett with awards handed out by Sasha Alexander, Betsy Brandt, Julie Delpy, Bruce Dern, Stana Katic, Julianna Margulies, and Alex Trebek. Henry Winkler will present a life achievement award to Garry Marshall. Jennifer Tilly will honor "The Simpsons" co-creator Sam Simon with the humanitarian award. The Wrap.
Seth Meyers will depart his "Saturday Night Live" anchor chair after the February 1 episode hosted by Melissa McCarthy. Show producers announce that head writer Colin Jost will take over co-hosting "Weekend Update" with Cecily Strong in March. Following Tina Fey and Myers, Jost is the third straight head writer to assume the anchor role. Meyers becomes host of "Late Night" in late February. TV Line.
, Leonardo DiCaprio
, Martin Scorsese
, Meryl Streep
, Matthew McConaughey
, Sandra Bullock
, Blue Jasmine
, 12 Years a Slave
, Zero Dark Thirty
, Alfonso Cuaron
, Chiwetel Ejiofor
, Cate Blanchett
, Before Midnight
, American Hustle
, Stories We Tell
, The Wind Rises
, The Act of Killing
, Oscars 2013 - Best Actor
, Oscars 2013 - Best Actress
, Oscars 2013 - Best Adapted Screenplay
, Oscars 2013 - Best Animated Feature
, Oscars 2013 - Best Director
, Oscars 2013 - Best Documentary Feature
, Oscars 2013 - Best Picture
There have only been six ties in Oscar history, but one of those was just last year when "Skyfall" and "Zero Dark Thirty" both won Best Sound Editing.
This year there has already been one improbable tie on the awards circuit: "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave" sharing Best Picture at the Producers Guild Awards.
The Oscars has ruled out allowing for such a tie in its Best Picture race (as explained here) but in an especially competitive year, are you hoping for ties in any other categories when the academy announces its final choices on March 2?
I myself am hopelessly torn over Best Actress. I admire three performances just about equally: Amy Adams in "American Hustle," Cate Blanchett in "Blue Jasmine," and Sandra Bullock in "Gravity." External factors knock Bullock down a peg for me – I'd rather pretend she won her other Oscar for "Gravity" than have her win a second – which leaves Adams and Blanchett.
The Daytime Emmys are about to enter a brave new world.
"All My Children" and "One Life to Live," cancelled by ABC before being revived by Prospect Park on the internet in 2013, will be the first web shows to compete in drama series categories. However, after being embroiled in false-starts, legal conflicts, and re-cancellation, how will these online off-shoots be received anew by Daytime Emmy voters?
They might do very well, according to David Michaels, senior executive director of the National Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, who told Michael Logan of TV Guide Magazine, "Our entry deadline was last Friday, Jan. 17, and we've had a lot of great submissions from 'AMC' and 'OLTL' — in fact, we've set an extreme record for the number of entries this year … From the look of Prospect Park's submissions, I think they'll give the four network soaps a real run for their money when it comes to production values and the quality of the writing, directing and acting."
, The Next Day
, Kings of Leon
, Led Zeppelin
, Black Sabbath
, Celebration Day
, Psychedelic Pill
, Queens of the Stone Age
, Like Clockwork
, Mechanical Bull
, Grammy Awards 2013 - Rock Album
This year, we may see a repeat of 2010 when a generational shift occurred in the Best Rock Album category: newcomers Muse bested four veterans -- Jeff Beck, Pearl Jam, Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers and Neil Young.
Among this year's contenders, Black Sabbath
, David Bowie
, Led Zeppelin
and Young are all Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductees. They are up against two bands formed in the 1990s: Kings of Leon
has won four Grammys, including Record of the Year in 2009 for "Use Somebody while Queens of the Stone Age
vied four times in the now-defunct Hard Rock Performance category.
Led Zeppelin made their Grammy debut in 1969 when they lost Best New Artist to Crosby, Stills & Nash. They have still yet to win a Grammy as a band although members Robert Plant and Jimmy Page won as a duo for Best Hard Rock Performance in 1999 for "Most High" and John Paul Jones claimed that award in its last year of existence in 2011 as part of the supergroup Them Crooked Vultures for "New Fang." Plant has a total of seven Grammys. This year, they contend for their concert album "Celebration Day" which was recorded in 2007. However, a concert album has yet to win this race.
Bowie has won just one Grammy: Best Short Form Video in 1984. He lost the now-defunct Best Male Rock Performance category five times. His new disc "The Next Day" reaped two bids and was ranked #16 on Rolling Stone's 50 Best Albums of 2013.
Young has been nominated for Best Rock Album six times but never won. This year, he returns to the race with "Psychedelic Pill."
Jason Aldean, Blake Shelton and Taylor Swift face off again for Best Country Album two years after losing to Lady Antebellum's "Own the Night." The other nominees this year are Tim McGraw and Kacey Musgraves.
Swift has three advantages in this race:
"Red" is also nominated for Album of the Year. In this category's eighteen-year history, six of the seven contenders that had also been in the running for Album of the Year won here. The seventh was Shania Twain's "Come on Over" in 1998. While she lost here to the Dixie Chicks' "Wide Open Spaces in 1998, she got a pretty good consolation prize as her disc moved 20 million copies to become the best-selling album of the 1990s.
Swift is the only one of the nominees to have won this award already, prevailing in 2009 for "Fearless," which was also named Album of the Year.
And "Red" is the biggest selling of the five nominees, having shifted more than 1.28 million copies in its first week alone.
Musgraves is Swift's main rival for her critically acclaimed debut album "Same Trailer, Different Park." She contends in four Grammy categories including for Best New Artist.
Among Gold Derby Editors, David Schnelwar knows his music awards so well that he holds the lofty nickname "Grammy Guru." But that doesn't cause me to pull any punches as we duke it out over the top four categories. After all, I know a thing or two about these kudos. I wrote Variety's book "The Grammys" and am the landlord around here at Gold Derby.
See David's extended predictions here. See mine here. See them both side by side with the picks of our other Editors. Bascially, we disagree on all top races.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
David: "Random Access Memories" (Daft Punk)
Tom: "The Heist" (Macklemore and Ryan Lewis)
RECORD OF THE YEAR
David: "Get Lucky" (Daft Punk featuring Pharrell)
Tom: "Royals" (Lorde)
SONG OF THE YEAR
David: "Royals" (Lorde)
Tom: "Same Love" (Macklemore and Ryan Lewis)
David: Kacey Musgraves
Tom: Macklemore and Ryan Lewis
Glenn Gamboa (Newsday) predicts Macklemore and Ryan Lewis will sweep three of the top four Grammy Award categories:
BEST ALBUM: "The Heist" (Macklemore and Ryan Lewis)
BEST RECORD: "Royals" (Lorde)
BEST SONG: "Same Love" (Macklemore and Ryan Lewis)
BEST NEW ARTIST: Macklemore and Ryan Lewis
See his full predictions in 23 races here. See how his predix match up, category per category, against those of other Grammy gurus here. Below, listen to our podcast chat. Here are some snippets.
BEST ALBUM: "I really think it's Macklemore and Ryan Lewis' year. They do something the Grammys like. They reach for something more than their genre usually has. Most of their songs turn hip hop upside down so it's an ambitious idea. Also they're kind of outsiders in the Arcade Fire mode so they're underdogs that the broad voters of the Grammys will embrace. I don't know if they're going to win Hip Hop Album of the year, but I think they'll win Album of the Year over all."
BEST RECORD: "I think 'Royals' shows someone who's really come into their own. The Grammys like to award artists who show ambition at such a young age. and that's what Lorde does. I think the lyrical quality of the song is something that Grammy voters would like to reward."