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You decide: How closely will Critics' Choice Awards foresee Oscars?

The Descendants, Film, Oscars, Prediction Game, , , , , , , , , , , ,

By Gold Derby News Desk
Dec 27 2011 | 06:32 am

Before predicting who will prevail at the 17th annual Critics' Choice Awards on Jan. 12, be sure to read our overviews and handicapping for all 12 races. And check out the charts that show the odds and rankings for each nominee. Then head over to our prediction center to log your forecasts for the eventual winners. (Signing up for a free account takes just a minute.) 

"The Artist" and "Hugo" lead with 11 bids each for these kudos bestowed by the Broadcast Film Critics' Assn. "The Artist," which won Best Picture from the New York Film Critics Circle last month, and "Hugo," which was similarly feted by the National Board of Review, are both in contention for Best Picture here as is "The Descendants," which won over the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. and got seven nods from the BFCA. 

The Best Picture race also includes "Drive" and "The Help," which both reaped eight BFCA bids, as well as "War Horse" (7), "The Tree of Life" (5), "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" (4), "Midnight in Paris" (3) and "Moneyball" (3)

Over the 16 years of these kudos, they have proven to be the most accurate precursor prizes to the Oscars. The BFCA has predicted nine of the past 15 Best Picture Oscar winners, 11 Best Actor, 10 Best Actress, nine Supporting Actress and eight Supporting Actor Oscar winners. They went four for four both last year and in 2009 although at the Critics' Choice Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side") did tie with Meryl Streep ("Julie & Julia").  

The BFCA is the largest film critics' organization in North America with 250 members who will determine the winners revealed on the VH1 kudocast.

Video: How to Log Your Oscar Predictions at Gold Derby

Academy Awards, Daytime Emmys, Emmys, Film, Golden Globes, Grammys, Music, Oscars, Prediction Game, Theater, Tonys, TV

By Tom O'Neil
Oct 09 2011 | 23:53 pm

Let's dispel any existing confusion over how Gold Derby works by presenting this brief video that shows you how to post your award predictions and compete against the experts here. It also offers a basic overview on what this site is all about. See more here and here.

Gold Derby Oscarologists bet on 'The Help' star Octavia Spencer

Melissa McCarthy, Vanessa Redgrave, The Tree of Life, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, Coriolanus, Jessica Chastain, Judi Dench, Sandra Bullock, Bridesmaids, Octavia Spencer, J. Edgar, The Artist, Berenice Bejo, Academy Awards, Film, Oscars, Prediction Game, Oscars 2011 Nominations - Best Supp. Actress

By Tom O'Neil
Oct 06 2011 | 09:30 am

An overwhelming majority of Gold Derby's Oscarologists pick Octavia Spencer to win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress as the wily, revenge-wreaking ex-maid in "The Help." She reaps favorable 4-to-9 racetrack odds over her nearest rival Vanessa Redgrave ("Coriolanus"), who scores 15-to-2 odds.

Fourteen of Gold Derby's experts pick Spencer, including Thelma Adams (Thelmadams.com), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Kevin Lewin (WENN), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Matt McDaniel (Yahoo Movies), Kevin Polowy (NextMovie), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), S.T. VanAirsdale (Movieline), Chuck Walton (Fandango) and Gold Derby editors Tom O'Neil and Paul Sheehan.

Four pundits pick Redgrave: Guy Lodge (In Contention), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today). Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter) opts for Berenice Bejo ("The Artist"). See a rundown of the experts' rankings in the category here.

All Gold Derby editors predict Spencer as well, plus the largest share of website users who register predictions (30%). See a chart comparing their predictions here.

MAKE YOUR OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Will Octavia Spencer win Best Supporting Actress?

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According to the combined views of all three sets of predictions at Gold Derby – experts, editors and site users – the five nominees in the category will be: Spencer, Redgrave, Jessica Chastain ("The Tree of Life"), Judi Dench ("J. Edgar") and Sandra Bullock ("Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"). The Experts' predictions disagree a bit by choosing Melissa McCarthy ("Bridesmaids") over Bullock. Here's the full chart breakdown.

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You predict: How closely will Critics' Choice nominations foresee Oscars?

Film, Prediction Game, , , , , ,

By Gold Derby News Desk
Oct 06 2011 | 07:05 am

Over the 16 years that the Broadcast Film Critics Assn. has handed out the Critics' Choice kudos, they have proven to be the most accurate precursor prizes to the Oscars. 

The BFCA has predicted nine of the past 15 Best Picture Oscar winners, 11 Best Actor, 10 Best Actress, nine Supporting Actress and eight Supporting Actor Oscar winners. They went four for four both last year and in 2009 although at the Critics' Choice Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side") did tie with Meryl Streep ("Julie & Julia").  

PREDICT CRITICS' CHOICE NOMINATIONS: How closely will they foresee Oscars?

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The BFCA roster of acting nominees has had the highest success rate of snagging Oscar bids. For example, all of last year's Best Actress and Supporting Actress Oscar nominees first contended at the Critics' Choice Awards.

As the BFCA only had three or four slots in each of the acting races for the first eight years, it missed nominating eventual Oscar champs Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), Denzel Washington ("Training Day") and Adrien Brody ("The Pianist").

Conversely, the BFCA has always had 10 nominees for Best Picture and almost all of their contenders ended up competing at the Oscars for the five Best Picture slots. 2009 marked the first time since 1944 that the Academy Awards also had 10 nominees. Of the 11 BFCA Best Picture nominees that year, nine of them -- including "The Hurt Locker" which won with both groups -- went on to contend at the Oscars. While the BFCA nominated both "Invictus" and "Nine," AMPAS filled out its roster with "The Blind Side."

Last year, the BFCA also got nine of the 10 eventual Oscar nominees (it went for "The Town" over "The Kids Are All Right"). However, as with all the critics' groups, the BFCA crowned "The Social Network" as Best Picture while the Academy Award went to "The King's Speech." 

The BFCA is the largest film critics' organization in North America with 250 members who will decide the nominees announced Dec. 13 and the winners revealed on the VH1 kudocast on Jan. 12.

Gold Derby's Oscarologists bet on 'War Horse' in Best Picture race

War Horse, Moneyball, The Descendants, The Artist, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, The Ides of March, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Academy Awards, Film, Oscars, Prediction Game, Oscars 2011 Nominations - Best Picture

By Tom O'Neil
Sep 26 2011 | 02:11 am

"War Horse" is slightly out front in the Academy Awards race for Best Picture, according to Gold Derby's Oscarologists who give it 4-to-1 racetrack odds to prevail. Close behind is "The Descendants" with 5-to-1 odds.

Five expert Oscarologists polled by Gold Derby back "War Horse": Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Gold Derby's Tom O'Neil and Paul Sheehan plus S.T. VanAirsdale (Movieline). Five others pick "The Descendants": Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Steve Pond (The Odds, The Wrap), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly) and Guy Lodge (In Contention) are betting on "The Artist," Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) chooses "Moneyball" and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) opts for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo."

See a detailed chart with the Best Picture rankings of each Expert here.

MAKE YOUR OSCAR PREDICTIONS: What will win Best Picture?

Log your predictions in all top Oscar races. Compete against experts!


The views of the Expert Oscarologists are combined with two other perspectives to determine Gold Derby's Inside Track racetrack odds: the site's Editors and site Users.

Three editors back "The Ides of March" (Chris Beachum, Matt Noble, David Schnelwar) and one editor rides each of the following ponies: "War Horse" (Andrew Pickett), "J. Edgar" (Marcus Dixon), "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" (Adam Waldowski), "The Help" (Matthew Cormier), "The Descendants" (Robert Licuria),"The Artist" (Daniel Montgomery). See a detailed chart of the Best Picture rankings of each Editor here.

Most site Users bet on "J. Edgar," "War Horse" and "The Help."

GOLD DERBY INSIDE TRACK: RACETRACK ODDS / BEST PICTURE

1.)  "War Horse" – 4/1
2.)  "The Descendants" – 5/1
3.)  "The Ides of March" – 15/2
4.)  "The Artist" – 9/1
5.)  "J. Edgar" – 9/1
6.)  "The Help" – 10/1
7.)  "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" – 16/1
8.)  "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" – 33/1
9.)  "Moneyball" – 50/1
10.) "The Tree of Life" – 50/1

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Vote for Gold Derby TV Award winners

TV, Prediction Game

By Gold Derby News Desk
Jul 18 2011 | 10:10 am

Our readers are such award nuts that they insisted upon bestowing their own kudos. Hundreds of Gold Derby readers submitted nominations for the 8th Annual Gold Derby TV Awards. The full list of nominees in 20 categories is below while the complete voting results are HERE. Voters will see green check marks next to their choices for nominees which made the cut.

You can help decide the winners which will be announced on Sept. 16, two days before the Primetime Emmy Awards. If you're already registered at Gold Derby, cast your ballot by clicking on the link marked "Vote: Gold Derby TV Awards" in the left column of your Profile Page just below the "Predictions" link where you log your Emmy forecasts. Use the easy drop and drag menus to log your choices. And if you haven't yet registered, start HERE.

The Gold Derby TV Awards were launched in 2004. Winners that year included "Arrested Development" (Best Comedy Series), "The Sopranos" (Best Drama Series) plus surprises like Amber Tamblyn of "Joan of Arcadia" for Best Drama Actress. One year later there was an upset in that drama-actress contest by Kristen Bell ("Veronica Mars"). Hugh Laurie ("House") and Steve Carell ("The Office") have never won Emmys, but they have two Gold Derby Awards each. See the full lists of past nominees and winners HERE.

DRAMA

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Boardwalk Empire" (HBO)
"Dexter" (Showtime)
"Friday Night Lights" (DirecTV/NBC)
"Game of Thrones" (HBO)
"The Good Wife" (CBS)
"Mad Men" (AMC)

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire" (HBO)
Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights" (DirecTV/NBC)
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" (Showtime)
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" (AMC)
Hugh Laurie, "House" (FOX)
Timothy Olyphant, "Justified" (FX)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights" (DirecTV/NBC)
Mireille Enos, "The Killing" (AMC)
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife" (CBS)
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men" (AMC)
Anna Paquin, "True Blood" (HBO)
Katey Sagal, "Sons of Anarchy" (FX)

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Charles, "The Good Wife" (CBS)
Alan Cumming, "The Good Wife" (CBS)
Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones" (HBO)
John Noble, "Fringe" (FOX)
Denis O'Hare, "True Blood" (HBO)
John Slattery, "Mad Men" (AMC)

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Christina Baranski, "The Good Wife" (CBS)
Michelle Forbes, "The Killing" (AMC)
Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men" (AMC)
Kelly Macdonald, "Boardwalk Empire" (HBO)
Margo Martindale, "Justified" (FX)
Archie Panjabi, "The Good Wife" (CBS)

COMEDY

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory" (CBS)
"Community" (NBC)
"Glee" (FOX)
"Modern Family" (ABC)
"Parks and Recreation" (NBC)
"30 Rock" (NBC)

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" (NBC)
Steve Carell, "The Office" (NBC)
Rob Lowe, "Parks and Recreation" (NBC)
Joel McHale, "Community" (NBC)
Matthew Morrison, "Glee" (FOX)
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory" (CBS)

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Courteney Cox, "Cougar Town" (ABC)
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie" (Showtime)
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" (NBC)
Laura Linney, "The Big C" (Showtime)
Martha Plimpton, "Raising Hope" (FOX)
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation" (NBC)

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ty Burrell, "Modern Family" (ABC)
Chris Colfer, "Glee" (FOX)
Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" (CBS)
Ed O'Neill, "Modern Family" (ABC)
Nick Offerman, "Parks and Recreation" (NBC)
Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family" (ABC)

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Julie Bowen, "Modern Family" (ABC)
Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock" (NBC)
Jane Lynch, "Glee" (FOX)
Heather Morris, "Glee" (FOX)
Busy Philipps, "Cougar Town" (ABC)
Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family" (ABC)

TV MOVIE/MINISERIES

BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES
"Carlos" (Sundance Channel)
"Cinema Verite" (HBO)
"Downton Abbey" (PBS Masterpiece)
"Luther" (BBC America)
"Mildred Pierce" (HBO)
"Too Big to Fail" (HBO)

BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTOR
Idris Elba, "Luther" (BBC America)
Samuel L. Jackson, "The Sunset Limited" (HBO)
Tommy Lee Jones, "The Sunset Limited" (HBO)
Edgar Ramirez, "Carlos" (Sundance Channel)
Patrick Stewart, "Macbeth" (PBS)

BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTOR
Taraji P. Henson, "Taken from Me: The Tiffany Rubin Story" (Lifetime)
Diane Lane, "Cinema Verite" (HBO)
Jean Marsh, "Upstairs, Downstairs" (PBS Masterpiece)
Elizabeth McGovern, "Downton Abbey" (PBS Masterpiece)
Kate Winslet, "Mildred Pierce" (HBO)

BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTOR
James Gandolfini, "Cinema Verite" (HBO)
Paul Giamatti, "Too Big to Fail" (HBO)
Guy Pearce, "Mildred Pierce" (HBO)
Tim Robbins, "Cinema Verite" (HBO)
Tom Wilkinson, "The Kennedys" (Reelz)

BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Melissa Leo, "Mildred Pierce" (HBO)
Cynthia Nixon, "Too Big to Fail" (HBO)
Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey" (PBS Masterpiece)
Betty White, "The Lost Valentine" (CBS)
Evan Rachel Wood, "Mildred Pierce" (HBO)

REALITY

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION SERIES
"The Amazing Race" (CBS)
"American Idol" (FOX)
"Dancing with the Stars" (ABC)
"Survivor" (CBS)
"Top Chef" (Bravo)
"The Voice" (NBC)

BEST REALITY SERIES
"Deadliest Catch" (Discovery)
"Dirty Jobs" (Discovery)
"Hoarders" (A&E)
"Intervention" (A&E)
"Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List" (Bravo)
"MythBusters" (Discovery)

BEST REALITY HOST
Phil Keoghan, "The Amazing Race" (CBS)
Heidi Klum, "Project Runway" (Lifetime)
Padma Lakshmi, "Top Chef" (Bravo)
Jeff Probst, "Survivor" (CBS)
Ryan Seacrest, "American Idol" (FOX)

VARIETY

BEST VARIETY SERIES
"Chelsea Lately" (E!)
"The Colbert Report" (Comedy Central)
"Conan" (TBS)
"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" (Comedy Central)
"Late Night with Jimmy Fallon" (NBC)
"Saturday Night Live" (NBC)

BEST VARIETY SPECIAL
"Bette Midler: The Showgirl Must Go On" (HBO)
"Kathy Griffin: 50 & Not Pregnant" (Bravo)
"Lady Gaga Presents the Monster Ball Tour" (HBO)
"Ricky Gervais: Out of England 2" (HBO)
"2010 Kennedy Center Honors" (CBS)

Give us your Emmy and Tony Award predix

Theater, Prediction Game, TV

By Gold Derby News Desk
May 24 2011 | 00:13 am

Great news, Derbyites: You can now log your award predictions here and share them with others.

Check out the gray horizontal bar above. Click on "Log In." You can register there or just use the easy Facebook interface option that pops up.

Once you're logged in, click on "My Account" in the gray bar above. That will take you to your Profile page where you can click on the "Predictions" link in the left column to start logging your predix.

Use the drop-down menu to choose which award you'd like to predict: Primetime Emmys, Daytime Emmys or Tonys. When selecting contenders, you can move them around easily using the drop and drag function, then go back and change them later. You can choose to share your predix with others or hide them from view. You can even post them easily to Facebook.

Don't see a contender in the drop-down menus? Pipe in here in our forums and tell us what's missing. We encourage you to use the forums for discussion of all award topics. Here is the main forums page.

Your Profile section at Gold Derby works just like Facebook. You have a wall to post comments and status updates. You can make friends, send messages, upload photos.

So … what do you think of our new improvements around here at Gold Derby, eh? Give us your feedback here.

-- Tom O'Neil

 

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Inside Track: Oscar Winners

See predictions of Oscarologists from Entertainment Weekly and IMDB ranked according to likelihood of winning. Compare to predictions of Gold Derby Editors and our Users in these charts (click "More" within each category box to see extended data). Review the nominees here and enter your predictions here.

Odds   View %  
ExpertsEditorsUsersTotal
1 The ArtistThe Artist
4/5
5/6
8/11
4/5
2 HugoHugo
10/1
6/1
9/1
9/1
3 The DescendantsThe Descendants
8/1
12/1
9/1
9/1
4 The HelpThe Help
9/1
14/1
12/1
10/1
5 Midnight in ParisMidnight in Paris
20/1
16/1
25/1
20/1
6 MoneyballMoneyball
20/1
25/1
25/1
25/1
7 The Tree of LifeThe Tree of Life
33/1
33/1
33/1
33/1
8 War HorseWar Horse
50/1
50/1
50/1
50/1
9 Extremely Loud and Incredibly CloseExtremely Loud and Incredibly Close
100/1
50/1
50/1
100/1
See complete statistics by Clicking Here