Tom O’Neil’s updated, 100% accurate Oscar predictions

Most Oscars pundits (by a slight margin) bet on “The King’s Speech” to win Best Picture — for several good reasons. It’s the kind of stylish historical drama that’s reigned in the past. It’s probably going to have the most nominations thanks to those crafts categories for costumes and art direction. And people really, really love it because it rips their hearts in half. All excellent arguments. (See a rundown of all experts’ predix pooled by Gold Derby here; racetrack odds here.)

But I’m stubbornly sticking by “The Social Network” because voters haven’t been picking traditional faves recently. They’ve chosen gritty fare (“No Country for Old Men,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” “The Hurt Locker”) being led by the New York and L.A. film critics awards, which announce their next batches of winners on Sunday, Dec. 12, (Angelenos) and Monday, Dec. 13 (Gothamites). “Social Network” is more to their taste.

Obviously, recent champs suggest that Oscar voters are looking to shake things up. That’s why “Toy Story 3” is viable. It could get a bump from the L.A. critics, which voted “WALL-E” Best Picture two years ago. And don’t write off “Inception.” Oscar voters select their Best Pictures based upon who directs them and Christopher Nolan holds a giant Oscar I.O.U.  Remember, the academy expanded its best-pic list to 10 because it snubbed his “Dark Knight.” His “Inception” could win one of the film critics’ kudos and Nolan could win DGA.

However, as things stand now, David Fincher is believed to be out front to win the Directors Guild of America Award, a trophy that usually foretells what will win best picture. If that’s true again, that means “
Social Network.” Let’s see what happens on Dec. 12 and 13, then I’ll tweak these predix again. Meantime, watch the videos of my Oscar dishfests with Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood) and Tim Appelo (Hollywood Reporter) here, Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly) here and Steve Pond (The Wrap) here.

“The Social Network”
“The King’s Speech”
“Toy Story 3”
“Black Swan”
“127 Hours”
“True Grit”
“The Fighter”
“The Town”
“Winter’s Bone”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
Cristopher Nolan, “Inception”
Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Inception”
Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”

Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Michael Douglas, “Wall Street 2”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan”


Latest Oscar predictions from 18 experts

Updated: Odds on the top Oscar races based upon experts’ predictions

Photos: “The King’s Speech” (Weinstein Co.), “The Social Network” (Columbia)

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