Gold Derby Oscarologists bet on Meryl Streep to win her third Oscar

Gold Derby’s Oscarologists put Meryl Streep out front in the Best Actress race for her upcoming performance as British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the biopic “The Iron Lady.” The Academy loves Streep, and they love historical figures even more, which perhaps explains why so many are already picking her to win for a film that has yet to be seen. She gets strong 8-to-11 odds to win her first Oscar in 29 years.

Nine of our fourteen Oscar experts are betting on Streep: Pete Hammond (Deadline), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), S.T. VanAirsdale (Movieline), Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

Streep’s closest rival is Glenn Close for her gender-bending role as a 19th-century woman pretending to be a man in “Albert Nobbs.” Third place: Viola Davis (“The Help“), who appeared with Streep three years ago in “Doubt,” which earned Oscar nominations for both of them.

Our Inside Track gives Close 11-to-2 odds and Davis 6-to-1 odds, provided Davis is campaigned as a lead actress for her performance as a maid in 1960s Mississippi. Four experts predict Davis to win: Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Guy Lodge (In Contention), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). Only one black actress has ever won this category: Halle Berry in “Monster’s Ball.”

One of our experts has struck out on his own: Keith Simanton (IMDb) predicts Charlize Theron to win for Jason Reitman‘s upcoming comedy “Young Adult.”

See a detailed chart with the Best Picture rankings of each Expert here.

Expert predictions are combined with those of Gold Derby’s Editors and Users to determine the odds, which change often because they update automatically every hour as they accommodate the latest views of Gold Derby’s posters. Nine Editors agree that Streep is ahead: Chris Beachum, Matt Noble, Andrew Pickett, David Schnelwar, and Adam Waldowski. The rest of our Editors are divided. Two are predicting Glenn Close for “Albert Nobbs” (Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria), while Daniel Montgomery is picking Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn“). See a detailed chart of the Best Picture rankings of each Editor here.

Meanwhile, Users overwhelmingly favor Streep, followed by Close and Davis.

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1.) Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady” – 8/11
2.) Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs” – 11/2
3.) Viola Davis, “The Help” – 6/1
4.) Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn” – 20/1
5.) Charlize Theron, “Young Adult” – 33/1

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