Jon Hamm has 1/3 odds to finally win first Emmy for Best Drama Actor

Three-time also-ran Jon Hamm is predicted to take home the Emmy Award Sunday as Best Drama Actor for “Mad Men.” According to our exclusive Gold Derby statistics, Hamm is the clear frontrunner with 1/3 odds. He has the overwhelming support of our experts, (8/10), editors (10/12) and 80% of our users (405 votes).


Hamm has submitted the episode “The Suitcase” to Emmy judges, a showcase entry that has his character Don Draper working all night on an ad campaign with Peggy Olson (Elisabeth Moss), getting drunk, making confessions, and finding out a good friend has died in California. Not only is it his best submission yet, but it also helps that three-time champ Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”) was not eligible since his show did not air during this Emmy season.

His strongest competitor is Steve Buscemi (“Boardwalk Empire“) who has already won this year at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards. Our experts Tim Appelo (The Hollywood Reporter) and Rick Porter (Zap2It), our editors Matthew Cormier and David Schnelwar, and 19% of our users (127 votes) are predicting Buscemi to prevail for his season finale “A Return to Normalcy.” In the episode, his character Nucky Thompson is celebrating Election Day and confessing his past to Margaret (Kelly Macdonald) about the deaths of his wife and baby years earlier.

The other four men in this category should enjoy the show from their seats. Hugh Laurie (“House“) is on his sixth nomination with no wins, but he has 50/1 odds due to the unsettling episode “After Hours” in which he performs surgery on himself in a bathtub. Kyle Chandler is also at 50/1 odds on his second bid for his role as Coach Eric Taylor on “Friday Night Lights” and has submitted the show’s finale “Always,” which is more of an ensemble piece that doesn’t spotlight any particular person.

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Even further behind with 100/1 odds are rookie Timothy Olyphant (“Justified“) for the action-packed episode “Reckoning” and Michael C. Hall on his fourth bid on “Dexter” with his episode “Teenage Wasteland.”

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