Oscars Best Actress squeaker: Viola Davis vs. Meryl Streep

Viola Davis (“The Help“) has just pulled even with Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady“) in the Oscar race for Best Actress. On Nov. 1, Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady“) had a comfy lead, but now they’re and neck with 11 Oscarologists at Gold Derby picking each of them to win. Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn“) follows in third place with 5 votes.

Technically, Davis has better racetrack odds (19/10 compared to 11/8 for Streep) because she ranks higher up among all 29 experts casting forecasts for five nominations. See a breakdown of  the experts’ rankings here. See how the rankings translate into data here.


Pundits picking Viola Davis: Thelma Adams (Thelmadams.com), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Mark Harris (Grantland), Guy Lodge (In Contention, Hitfix), Matt McDaniel (Yahoo Movies), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Christopher Rosen (Moviefone), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood, Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), S.T. VanAirsdale (Movieline),

Experts betting on Streep: Ed Douglas (Comingsoon), Bradley Jacobs (Us Weekly), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Kevin Lewin (WENN), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Kevin Polowy (NextMovie), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Chuck Walton (Fandango), Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

Oscarologists choosing Michelle Williams: J.D. Cargill (CNN), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB).

Elena Howe (L.A. Times) predicts Tilda Swinton (“We Need to Talk About Kevin“) and Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes) picks Kirsten Dunst (“Melancholia“).


Nov. 1 Nov. 24
1. Meryl Streep  – 12 votes (39% – 8/5 odds) Viola Davis – 11 votes (33% – 19/10 odds)
2. Viola Davis – 9 (31% – 9/4) Meryl Streep – 11 (33% – 11/8)
3. Michelle Williams – 4 (15% – 11/2) Michelle Williams – 5 (17% – 5/1)
4. Glenn Close – 0 (7% – 14/1)  Tilda Swinton – 0 (4% – 25/1)
5. Tilda Swinton – 1 (4% – 25/1) Kirsten Dunst – 0 (3% – 33/1)




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