Oscars Best Picture race: ‘The Descendants’ resumes lead

Over the weekend many Gold Derby Oscarologists updated their predictions, so it’s a good time to see how the race has progressed since the end of the trio of film festivals in September (Venice, Telluride, Toronto) to today. The chart below tracks how opinions have changed every two weeks. The number beside each film title represents the tally of experts predicting it to win the top Academy Award.


So far 11 Oscarologists opt for “The Descendants,” 8 pick “The Artist” and 7 ride “War Horse” while “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” poses a dark-horse challenge. Briefly, in mid-October, “War Horse” dashed ahead of “The Descendants,” but the latter reclaimed the lead in early November and has held onto it since.

Oscarologists predicting victory for “The Descendants” include Thelma Adams (Thelmadams.com), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Bradley Jacobs (Us Weekly), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), S.T. Van Airsdale (Movieline), Chuck Walton (Fandango), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

Pundits picking “The Artist“: Ed Douglas (Comingsoon), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Mark Harris (Grantland), Elena Howe (L.A. Times), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Guy Lodge (In Contention), Kevin Polowy (Next Movie), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone).

Experts riding “War Horse“: Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Kevin Lewin (WENN), Matt McDaniel (Yahoo Movies), Michael Musto (Village Voice) and Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby).

Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) picks “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.” See charts with the rankings of each expert here. See the latest racetrack odds to win and odds to be nominated.






1. ‘Descendants’ (9)

War Horse’ (9)

‘Descendants’ (11)

‘Descendants’ (11)


‘War Horse’ (5)

‘Descendants’ (8)

‘War Horse’ (5)

The Artist’ (8)


‘The Artist’ (2)

‘The Artist’ (3)

‘The Artist’ (4)

‘War Horse’ (7)


‘Girl with Dragon Tattoo’ (1)

‘Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close’ (1)

‘Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close’ (3)

‘Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close’ (1)


‘Moneyball’ (1)

‘Girl with Dragon Tattoo’ (1)

‘Girl with Dragon Tattoo’ (1)



‘J. Edgar’ (1)

‘J. Edgar’ (1)


‘Moneyball’ (1)

‘Moneyball’ (1)



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