You predict: How closely will Critics’ Choice nominations foresee Oscars?

Over the 16 years that the Broadcast Film Critics Assn. has handed out the Critics’ Choice kudos, they have proven to be the most accurate precursor prizes to the Oscars. 

The BFCA has predicted nine of the past 15 Best Picture Oscar winners, 11 Best Actor, 10 Best Actress, nine Supporting Actress and eight Supporting Actor Oscar winners. They went four for four both last year and in 2009 although at the Critics’ Choice Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”) did tie with Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”).  

PREDICT CRITICS’ CHOICE NOMINATIONS: How closely will they foresee Oscars?

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The BFCA roster of acting nominees has had the highest success rate of snagging Oscar bids. For example, all of last year’s Best Actress and Supporting Actress Oscar nominees first contended at the Critics’ Choice Awards.

As the BFCA only had three or four slots in each of the acting races for the first eight years, it missed nominating eventual Oscar champs Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”), Denzel Washington (“Training Day”) and Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”).

Conversely, the BFCA has always had 10 nominees for Best Picture and almost all of their contenders ended up competing at the Oscars for the five Best Picture slots. 2009 marked the first time since 1944 that the Academy Awards also had 10 nominees. Of the 11 BFCA Best Picture nominees that year, nine of them — including “The Hurt Locker” which won with both groups — went on to contend at the Oscars. While the BFCA nominated both “Invictus” and “Nine,” AMPAS filled out its roster with “The Blind Side.”

Last year, the BFCA also got nine of the 10 eventual Oscar nominees (it went for “The Town” over “The Kids Are All Right”). However, as with all the critics’ groups, the BFCA crowned “The Social Network” as Best Picture while the Academy Award went to “The King’s Speech.” 

The BFCA is the largest film critics’ organization in North America with 250 members who will decide the nominees announced Dec. 13 and the winners revealed on the VH1 kudocast on Jan. 12.

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