What do the Golden Globe nominations tell us about the Oscars?

The Golden Globes, one of our most reliable Oscar crystal balls, have announced their nominees: “Lincoln” leads with seven nods, with “Argo” and “Django Unchained” close behind with five each. “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Les Miserables,” and “Silver Linings Playbook” managed four bids apiece, while “Life of Pi” received three. Completely shut out was “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” while “The Master” was left out of Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Score, despite receiving three acting nominations. Here’s what the Golden Globe nominations tell us about the Oscars:

It is important to note that only four films have won Best Picture without being nominated in either the Drama or Musical/Comedy categories at the Golden Globes: “The Sting” (1973), “Chariots of Fire” (1981), “Gandhi” (1982), and “Crash” (2005) (It is important to note that between 1953-1955, there were no nominees, only winners were announced). Whether it be in the Drama or Musical/Comedy category, a Globe nomination means a great deal to a films Oscar chances.

Argo,” “Django Unchained,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Zero Dark Thirty

Last year, five out of the six Best Picture (Drama) nominees repeated at the Oscars: “The Descendants,” “The Help,” “Hugo,” “Moneyball,” and “War Horse”; only “The Ides of March” was excluded. “The Descendants” won the Globe, but not the Oscar.

Since 1952, a staggering 32 of the Golden Globe’s picks for Best Picture (Drama) have repeated at the Oscars: “The Greatest Show on Earth” (1952), “On the Waterfront” (1954), “Around the World in 80 Days” (1956), “The Bridge on the River Kwai” (1957), “Ben-Hur” (1959), “Lawrence of Arabia” (1962), “A Man for All Seasons” (1966), “In the Heat of the Night” (1967), “The French Connection” (1971), “The Godfather” (1972), “One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest” (1975), “Rocky” (1976), “Kramer vs. Kramer” (1979), “Ordinary People” (1980), “Terms of Endearment” (1983), “Amadeus” (1984), “Out of Africa” (1985), “Platoon” (1986), “The Last Emperor” (1987), “Rain Man” (1988), “Dances with Wolves” (1990), “Schindler’s List” (1993), “Forrest Gump” (1994), “The English Patient” (1996), “Titanic” (1997), “Saving Private Ryan” (1998), “American Beauty” (1999), “Gladiator” (2000), “A Beautiful Mind” (2001), “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003), and “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008).

Left out of this category were “The Master” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” This doesn’t necessarily hurt their chances of an Oscar nomination, but it doesn’t help them either. All five of the Globe’s nominees have a shot at getting into Best Picture, but the question is which one will win. “Lincoln” has the most nominations, yet “Zero Dark Thirty” has been collecting all the critics awards. It’ll be a fight to the death for that top prize.

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” “Les Miserables,” “Moonrise Kingdom,” “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen,” “Silver Linings Playbook

Last year, only two of the Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) nominees – “The Artist” and “Midnight in Paris” – repeated at the Oscars, leaving out “Bridesmaids,” “50/50,” and “My Week with Marilyn.” “The Artist” won both the Globe and the Oscar.

Since 1951, 12 of the Golden Globe’s picks for Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) have repeated at the Oscars: “An American in Paris” (1951), “Gigi” (1958), “The Apartment” (1960), “West Side Story” (1961), “Tom Jones” (1963), “My Fair Lady” (1964), “The Sound of Music” (1965), “Oliver!” (1968), “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989), “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), “Chicago” (2002), and “The Artist” (2011).

This is a battle between “Les Miserables” and “Silver Linings Playbook.” The grand sweep of “Les Mis” could put it in the lead, but “Silver Linings” is one to watch in this category. Meanwhile, “Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” and “Moonrise Kingdom” are both starting to look like strong Best Picture nominees.

Ben Affleck (“Argo”), Kathryn Bigelow (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”), Steven Spielberg (“Lincoln”), Quentin Tarantino (“Django Unchained”)

Last year, four of the Golden Globe’s picks for Best Director repeated at the Oscars: Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”), Alexander Payne (“The Descendants”), Martin Scorsese (“Hugo”), and Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”); George Clooney (“The Ides of March”) was replaced by Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”).

Quentin Tarantino gets a huge boost today. Left out were Tom Hooper (“Les Miserables”), David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”), and Paul Thomas Anderson (“The Master”). Hooper’s exclusion does not bode well for “Les Mis’” chances. If the same happens at the Oscars, it will significantly hurt the film’s standing as a Best Picture frontrunner, since only three films – “Wings” (1927), “Grand Hotel” (1932), and “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989) – have won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. Meanwhile, Hollywood god Steven Spielberg will duke it out with critics darling Kathryn Bigelow for the win, but watch out for Ben Affleck in this category: the Globes love to reward a big star turned director.

Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), Richard Gere (“Arbitrage”), John Hawkes (“The Sessions”), Joaquin Phoenix (“The Master”), Denzel Washington (“Flight”)

Last year, only George Clooney (“The Descendants”) and Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”) repeated at the Oscars, while Leonardo DiCaprio (“J. Edgar”), Michael Fassbender (“Shame”) and Ryan Gosling (“The Ides of March”) were left out for Demian Bichir (“A Better Life”) and Gary Oldman (“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”). Clooney won the Golden Globe.

Joaquin Phoenix’s chances are revived after being snubbed by SAG, while Richard Gere gets his first kudos of the season. Gere, who won a Globe for “Chicago” (2002), has never been nominated for an Oscar, despite being one of Hollywood’s favorite actors. Could this be a sign of things to come? Daniel Day-Lewis retains his front-runner status.

Jack Black (“Bernie”), Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables”), Ewan McGregor (“Salmon Fishing in the Yemen”), Bill Murray (“Hyde Park on Hudson”)

Last year, only Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”) repeated at the Oscars, leaving out Brendan Gleeson (“The Guard”), Ryan Gosling (“Crazy, Stupid, Love”), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (“50/50”) and Owen Wilson (“Midnight in Paris”); Dujardin won both the Globe and the Oscar.

The battle here is between Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman, who are both likely to receive Oscar nominations. Give Jackman the edge right now, given the gravitas of “Les Mis,” but Cooper could surprise.

Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Marion Cotillard (“Rust and Bone”), Helen Mirren (“Hitchcock”), Naomi Watts (“The Impossible”), Rachel Weisz (“The Deep Blue Sea”)

Last year, four of the Best Actress nominees came from this category: Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”), Viola Davis (“The Help”), Rooney Mara (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”), and Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”); only Tilda Swinton (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”) was left out. Streep won both the Globe and the Oscar.

After being snubbed by SAG and now the Golden Globes, things aren’t looking good for Quvenzhane Wallis (“Beast of the Southern Wild”) and Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour”). Things are looking brighter for Helen Mirren and Naomi Watts, who were both nominated by SAG yesterday. And Rachel Weisz adds this nomination to her NYFCC win to become a real contender.

Emily Blunt (“Salmon Fishing in the Yemen”), Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Maggie Smith (“Quartet”), Meryl Streep (“Hope Springs”)

Last year, only one of the Best Actress nominees in this category – winner Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn”) – repeated at the Oscars, leaving out Jodie Foster (“Carnage”), Charlize Theron (“Young Adult”), Kristen Wiig (“Bridesmaids”), and Kate Winslet (“Carnage”).

That same scenario could play out this year, with front-runner Jennifer Lawrence likely to score a nomination. It would be a shock for anyone else to win in this category. Meanwhile, the question is which of her Dramatic counterparts does she edge out for an Oscar nomination? Weisz appears to be the most vulnerable, but you never can tell.

Alan Arkin (“Argo”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“Django Unchained”), Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”), Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”), Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”)

Last year, three of the Best Supporting Actor nominees repeated at the Oscars: Kenneth Branagh (“My Week with Marilyn”), Jonah Hill (“Moneyball”), and Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”); Albert Brooks (“Drive”) and Viggo Mortensen (“A Dangerous Method”) were replaced by Nick Nolte (“Warrior”) and Max von Sydow (“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”). Plummer won both the Globe and the Oscar.

After being snubbed by the Globes and the BFCA, the “Django Unchained” men finally get some love. Left out were SAG nominees Robert De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook”) and Javier Bardem (“Skyfall”), as well as Samuel L. Jackson (“Django Unchained”), Matthew McConaughey (“Magic Mike”), and Eddie Redmayne (“Les Miserables”). A front-runner has yet to emerge in this category, so it’s up for grabs.

Amy Adams (“The Master”), Sally Field (“Lincoln”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”), Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”), Nicole Kidman (“The Paperboy”)

Last year, four of the Best Supporting Actress nominees repeated at the Oscars: Berenice Bejo (“The Artist”), Jessica Chastain (“The Help”), Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobbs”), and Octavia Spencer (“The Help”); Shailene Woodley (“The Descendants”) was replaced by Melissa McCarthy (“Bridesmaids”). Spencer won both the Globe and the Oscar.

Amy Adams gets a boost after a snub from SAG yesterday, replacing SAG nominee Maggie Smith (“The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”). Judi Dench (“Skyfall”), Ann Dowd (“Compliance”), Samantha Barks (“Les Miserables”), and Jacki Weaver (“Silver Linings Playbook”) were left out again, while Nicole Kidman repeated her SAG nomination for “The Paperboy,” a film that was critically panned upon its release. Will Oscar voters ignore critics and nominate one of their favorite actresses?

Chris Terrio (“Argo”), Quentin Tarantino (“Django Unchained”), Tony Kushner (“Lincoln”), David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Mark Boal (“Zero Dark Thirty”)

Last year, all five of the Golden Globe nominees – “The Artist” (Michel Hazanavicius), “The Descendants” (Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, Nat Faxon), “The Ides of March” (George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon), “Midnight in Paris” (Woody Allen), and “Moneyball” (Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin) – repeated at the Oscars. Woody Allen won both the Globe and the Oscar.

Because the Globes only have one category for Screenplay, there are always several contenders left out. This year, “The Master” (Paul Thomas Anderson), “Moonrise Kingdom” (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola), “Life of Pi” (David Magee), and “Looper” (Rian Johnson) were left out, but that doesn’t necessarily hurt their Oscar chances. The winner in this category will be telling for either the Original or Adapted Screenplay race.

Brave,” “Frankenweenie,” “Hotel Transylvania,” “Rise of the Guardians,” “Wreck-It Ralph

Last year, two of the Globe nominees – “Rango” and “Puss in Boots” – repeated at the Oscars, while “The Adventures of Tintin,” “Arthur Christmas,” and “Cars 2” were replaced by “A Cat in Paris,” “Chico & Rita,” and “Kung Fu Panda 2.” “Tintin” won the Globe, while “Rango” won the Oscar.

It seems unlikely that anything can beat “Frankenweenie” at this point, all the way up to the Oscars.

Amour,” “A Royal Affair,” “The Intouchables,” “Kon-Tiki,” “Rust and Bone

Last year, only one nominee – “A Separation” – repeated at the Oscars, while “The Flowers of War,” “The Kid with a Bike,” “In the Land of Blood and Honey,” and “The Skin I Live In” were all replaced by “Bullhead,” “Footnote,” “In Darkness,” and “Monsieur Lazhar.” “A Separation” won both the Globe and the Oscar.

“Rust and Bone” is ineligible in this category at the Oscars, since France submitted fellow nominee “The Intouchables” instead. “Amour” is in the lead for the win, but the Best Actress snubbing of Emmanuel Riva calls into question the overall popularity of the film.

Dario Marianelli (“Anna Karenina”), Alexandre Desplat (“Argo”), Tom Tykwer, Johnny Klimek, Reinhold Heil (“Cloud Atlas”), Mychael Danna (“Life of Pi”), John Williams (“Lincoln”)

Last year, three of the nominated scores repeated at the Oscars: “The Artist” (Ludovic Bource), “Hugo” (Howard Shore), and “War Horse” (John Williams); “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross) and “W.E.” (Abel Korzeniowski) were replaced by “The Adventures of Tintin” (John Williams) and “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” (Alberto Iglesias). “The Artist” won both the Globe and the Oscar.

Since a front-runner has yet to emerge in this category, it’s still anyone’s game. The popularity of “Lincoln” could push it towards a win, yet this could also be a place where voters reward “Life of Pi” or “Argo.” Left out were “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (Benh Zeitlin, Dan Romer) and “The Master” (Jonny Greenwood).

For You” (“Act of Valor”), “Not Running Anymore” (“Stand Up Guys”), “Safe and Sound” (“The Hunger Games”), “Skyfall (Song)” (“Skyfall”), “Suddenly” (“Les Miserables”)

Last year, none of the Globe nominated songs repeated at the Oscars. This year, the likeliest nominees are “Skyfall” and “Suddenly,” with Adele’s popularity pushing “Skyfall” into the lead.

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