Golden Globe winners will repeat at Oscars, experts say

Looks like the Golden Globe will soon reclaim its role as Oscar crystal ball. If the predictions of Oscar pundits at Gold Derby are correct, most of the big Globe winners will repeat on Oscar night.

Historically, the Globe has been a good harbinger of the Academy Award. Over the past 60 years, more than 60 percent of the Oscar’s winners for acting and Best Picture repeated an earlier victory in one of the Globe’s two sets of categories — for dramas and comedies/musicals. But there’s been serious disagreement over Best Picture in recent times. Only once in the past seven years have they agreed on the top prize: “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008).


Now experts foresee easy Oscar wins ahead for the Globe’s new supporting actor champs Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”) and Octavia Spencer (“The Help“) and they consider Best Drama Actor George Clooney (“The Descendants“) to be the academy’s likely choice too. But Clooney faces a notable challenge from Jean Dujardin, who won the Globe for Best Comedy/Musical Actor. If “The Artist” sweeps the Oscars, it may take its lead star along for a ride.

Clooney has a huge lead among the 30 pundits from Yahoo, Entertainment Weekly and other top media: 22 pick him to bag the Oscar, compared to five for Dujardin and three for Brad Pitt (“Moneyball“). Among Gold Derby editors, Clooney has a more narrow edge: four votes compared to three for Dujardin and two for Pitt. See the experts’ predix here; editors’ predix here. Click the links at the top of each page to see more categories. Here are charts contrasting their predix. Click on “More” within each category box to see data breakdown.

Most suspense surrounds the lead actress race following Globe wins by Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady“) and Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn“). Of the 30 media punidts polled, 20 say Viola Davis (“The Help”) will win the Oscar; seven pick Streep, three opt for Williams. Among Gold Derby editors, Streep is favored over Davis by a score of six to four.

Normally, the Globe champ for Best Drama Picture is the favorite to win the top Oscar, but only three of 30 experts believe “The Descendants” will repeat on Oscar night. Twenty-five pick “The Artist” and there’s one vote each for “Hugo” and “The Help.” All nine Gold Derby editors pick “The Artist.” Over the past 40 years only three Globe winners of Best Comedy/Musical Picture claimed the equivalent prize at the Oscars: “Chicago” (2002), “Shakespeare in Love” (1998) and “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989).

Click image below to see Experts’ latest Oscar predix.



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