Will Katy Perry repeat as winner of Video of the Year at MTV VMAs?

The most deserving nominee doesn’t always win Video of the Year. These injustices date back to the first VMAs in 1984 when The Cars’ “You Might Think” upset Michael Jackson’s epic music video “Thriller. And in 2001, the collaboration of Christina Aguilera, Lil Kim, Pink  & Mya on a cover of “Lady Marmalade” beat out Fatboy Slim’s video for “Weapon of Choice” that starred Oscar winner Christopher Walken.

This year’s Gotye’s ”Somebody That I Used to Know” deserves to win. The song was number one on the Billboard Hot 100 for eight weeks. However, it only received two other nominations — Best Editing and Shareworthy — and Gotye was snubbed for Best New Artist.

Despite four of our Editors and almost half our Users predicting it to prevail, it is hard to picture Gotye winning Video of the Year at the end of the night. The last time a deserving new artist took this top prize was Jamiraquoi’s “Virtual Insanity” in 1997. (New group Panic! at the Disco won Video of the Year for the so-so “I Write Sins Not Tragedies” in 2006, the first year of fan voting.)

Of ther other four nominees, Drake and Rihanna lead with five bids each. Rihanna, who won this award in 2007 for “Umbrella,” appears on Drake’s video “Take Care” and contends with her own “We Found Love.” Her solo effort has the backing of two Editors and a third of our Users while her collaboration with Drake has almost no support. 

Last year’s winner Katy Perry (“Firework”) is back with “Wide Awake” and she contends for four awards in all. I am predicting her to win this race as are one other Editor and about 10% of our Users. For five years running, a woman has taken home this award. And Perry is a darling of MTV which co-produced her concert film “Katy Perry: Part of Me.” That comes out on DVD on September 18 so expect to see lots of ads promoting it during the telecast. 

Who will win Video of the Year?
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For the third consecutive year, there was an unexpected nominee.  In 2010, it was 30 Seconds to Mars with “Kings and Queens” and in 2011, it was Tyler the Creator’s “Yonkers.” This year it is M.I.A.’s “Bad Girls.”  She is a long shot to win with only five percent of Users backing her bid. 

If either Rihanna or Perry prevail, they will tie the record set by Eminem who is the only artist to have won this race twice (“The Real Slim Shady,” 2000; “Without Me,” 2002). 

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