SAG Awards odds: ‘Boardwalk Empire,’ ‘Modern Family’ will win again [Video]

Can Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife“) and Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock“) continue their winning ways and break SAG Awards records this weekend? Margulies has already won the most times (eight)  in the 17-year history of the awards bestowed by the Screen Actors Guild. Baldwin has reaped five consecutive trophies for his role on the NBC comedy plus an ensemble award, so another win would break his tie with Anthony Edwards (“E.R.”) as the most for a man. Both have double bids this Sunday, but neither is favored to prevail according to our exclusive Gold Derby statistics.


One of Baldwin’s chances is as part of the “30 Rock” ensemble, an award they won in 2009. However, 4/9 odds overwhelmingly favor last year’s champ “Modern Family” (also the reigning Emmy and Globe winner) to repeat as Best TV Comedy Ensemble. This ABC laffer is the choice of all six Experts, all nine Editors, and 68% of our users. The only rookie in this field is CBS program “The Big Bang Theory,” which is in second position at 8/1. The fourth place contender is the cast of Fox’s “Glee,” which won here in 2010, at 16/1. The final slot is held by NBC’s two-time winner “The Office” (2007, 2008) at 25/1.

Baldwin is also forecast to finally be defeated for Best TV Comedy Actor. With 6/1 odds, he is predicted by two Editors but is in third place overall. The race is predicted to be a very tight two-way competition between reigning Emmy champ Ty Burrell (“Modern Family”) and Steve Carell (“The Office”).

Burrell has a slight edge at 11/8 and is the choice of four Experts, three Editors, and 36% of Users. Carell stands at 15/8 and is the selection of two Experts, four Editors, and 39% of Users. Neither man has ever won an individual SAG Award before.

Eric Stonestreet (“Modern Family”) is next at 14/1 and is followed by first-time nominee Jon Cryer (“Two and a Half Men“). All of these men have won Emmys for these roles except for Carell. Reigning two-time Emmy champ Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”) was not even nominated for this prize. And recent Golden Globe champ Matt LeBlanc (“Episodes“) failed to get a nod.

The fight for Best TV Comedy Actress should be a close one between last year’s champ Betty White (“Hot in Cleveland“) and recent Emmy winner Julie Bowen (“Modern Family”). Bowen is a shade ahead with 6/5 odds and is predicted by four Experts, five Editors, and 34% of Users. White is very close behind with 12/5 odds and has been chosen by two Experts, two Editors, and 31% of Users.

In third position is Sofia Vergara (“Modern Family”) at 6/1 with one Editor predicting her. Tina Fey (“30 Rock”) follows in fourth place at 16/1 and is also one Editor’s pick. The final slot is held by Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie“) at 16/1. All of these ladies are Emmy winners except for Vergara, and all except the “Modern Family” actresses have previous individual SAG wins. Snubs include recent Globe champ Laura Dern (“Enlightened“) and Emmy winner Melissa McCarthy (“Mike & Molly”), who is at least competing for her film role in “Bridesmaids“.

In the race for Best TV Drama Ensemble, the HBO gangster series “Boardwalk Empire” has good 17/10 odds to repeat. The cast is projected to win by two Experts, five Editors, and 43% of Users. Nipping it their heels is another HBO program, “Game of Thrones,” at 3/1 odds and the support of two Experts and 28% of Users. In third place at 9/2 is the AMC show “Breaking Bad,” competing for the first time at SAG. The CBS legal drama “The Good Wife” makes another try in this category but is in the fourth slot at 5/1. Way, way behind is Showtime’s “Dexter” at 50/1. Reigning Emmy winner “Mad Men” had no new episodes in 2011 and was ineligible, but Globe champ “Homeland” was and got snubbed.

Last year’s SAG king Steve Buscemi (“Boardwalk Empire”) faces off against recent Emmy winner Kyle Chandler (“Friday Night Lights“) and three-time Emmy champ Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”) for Best TV Drama Actor.

Our statistics show a tight race between Cranston at 21/20 and Buscemi at 23/10. Cranston is predicted by four Experts, six Editors, and 41% of Users for a small advantage over Buscemi, who has the votes of two Experts, two Editors, and 34% of Users. Chandler follows in third position at 6/1.

Then Michael C. Hall (“Dexter”) at 20/1 and Patrick J. Adams (“Suits“) at 33/1. Buscemi and Hall are previous SAG winners, while the other three men are each trying for their first trophy. Emmy/Globe winner Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”) and Globe champ Kelsey Grammer (“Boss“) were not nominated.

Recent Golden Globe winner Jessica Lange (“American Horror Story“) is the slight frontrunner over Margulies as Best TV Drama Actress. For her first bid in a series category, Lange is favored with 6/5 odds and is the choice of four Experts, two Editors, and 50% of Users. Reigning Emmy and SAG champ Margulies is just a whisker away at 9/4 and is predicted by one Expert, six Editors, and 30% of Users.

Much further behind are Glenn Close (“Damages“) at 13/2 plus Kathy Bates (“Harry’s Law“) and Kyra Sedgwick (“The Closer“) tied at 16/1. While Bates and Close have SAG Awards on their shelves for other projectes, Margulies is the only one of this group to win for her current role. Lange and Sedgwick have never won at SAG before. Emmy winner Margo Martindale (“Justified“) and Globe champ Claire Danes (“Homeland”) did not receive nominations.

All five of the contenders for Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actor also reaped Emmy bids last summer. Supporting actor winner Guy Pearce (“Mildred Pierce“) and Laurence Fishburne (“Thurgood“) are running neck-and-neck to prevail at SAG. Fishburne leads with 3/2 odds and is predicted by four Experts, two Editors, and 34% of Users. Pearce is at 19/10 with the support of one expert, six editors, and 43% of users.

In the third slot is Greg Kinnear (“The Kennedys“) at 15/2, who gained a surprise bid over his Emmy-winning co-star Barry Pepper. The final two slots are held by James Woods at 14/1 and Paul Giamatti at 16/1, both from the movie “Too Big to Fail.” Fishburne and Woods are the only men in the field who have never won a SAG Award before. Recent Globe winner Idris Elba (“Luther“) failed to get a nod.

Two recent Emmy champs, Kate Winslet (“Mildred Pierce”) and Maggie Smith (“Downton Abbey“), face off in a battle for Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actress at the SAG Awards. Winslet has heavy 4/7 odds to win on Sunday and is the choice of five Experts, nine Editors, and 64% of Users. Smith is in the second position at 4/1 and is predicted by just one Expert.

Diane Lane (“Cinema Verite”) and Betty White (“The Lost Valentine”) are tied for third place at 14/1. The final slot is held by Emily Watson (“Appropriate Adult“) at 33/1. Winslet and White have previously won individual awards, while Smith and Watson have won for ensemble work. Lane is the only lady without a previous SAG win.

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