Who will Laura Dern replace in Comedy Actress Emmy race?

Last year’s hilarious, show-stopping Comedy Actress Emmy sextet is destined to be broken up.

While each of the nominated ladies are eligible again this time around — Tina Fey (“30 Rock”), Martha Plimpton (“Raising Hope”), Melissa McCarthy (“Mike & Molly”), Amy Poehler (“Parks and Recreation”), Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie”) and Laura Linney (“The Big C”) — awards history tells us that at least one of them won’t receive an Emmy bid this year. Why?

Because for the past two decades, 19 out of 20 actresses who first prevailed at the Golden Globes in this same category automatically received a nomination at the Emmy awards. Simply put, this means that reigning Golden Globe champ Laura Dern (“Enlightened”) is in, and one of last year’s Emmy-nominated actresses is out. So who will be the unlucky lady?

According to Gold Derby’s Editors and Users, Poehler (27/20 odds), McCarthy (13/2 odds) and Fey (15/2 odds) have nothing to worry about, as these women currently make up the top three in the Comedy Actress race. Linney trails a bit further back (16/1 odds), while Plimpton and Falco bring up the rear (each with 100/1 odds). Going off these early statistics, we can expect that not one, but two of last year’s honorees will likely fail to repeat their nominations: Martha Plimpton and Edie Falco.

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While Plimpton is currently Emmy-less, her series “Raising Hope” just got picked up for a third season by Fox, so there will be more chances for her to contend in the future. Meanwhile, Falco shouldn’t be too hurt by a probable snub, as she already has four Emmys on her mantel: three for “The Sopranos” (1999, 2001, 2003) and one for “Nurse Jackie” (2010).

Statistics tell us that Dern is a sure bet to take over one of these slots thanks to her victory at the Golden Globes for HBO’s “Enlightened,” but who else might hear her name called on nomination morning?

According to our Editors and Users, it will either be “Veep’s” Julia Louis-Dreyfus (12/1 odds) or “New Girl’s” Zooey Deschanel (25/1 odds). Louis-Dreyfus is an Emmy darling, having prevailed in this race in 2006 for “The New Adventures of Old Christine” and in the Comedy Supporting Actress race in 1996 for “Seinfeld,” while Deschanel was an early favorite for her breakout new series.

Over the past 20 years, there’s only been one Golden Globe winner in the TV Comedy Actress race that failed to follow up her victory with an Emmy nomination. That dishonor goes to Mary-Louise Parker, who prevailed for the first season of “Weeds” at the Golden Globes in 2005 but didn’t receive her first Emmy nod until 2007.

Below, watch the much-talked about moment from last year’s Emmy telecast featuring all six of the Comedy Actress nominees.

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