In looking at the chart above, Lena Dunham (“Girls“) was the biggest threat to Louis-Dreyfus when nominations were announced on July 18. Over the past two months, however, that lead has completely evaporated. If Louis-Dreyfus does win again, she will be the first person since 2001 (Patricia Heaton, “Everybody Loves Raymond”) to prevail twice for the same role in this category. She also took home the Emmy in 2006 for playing a different part in “The New Adventures of Old Christine.”
Currently, Louis-Dreyfus leads the experts’ predictions with 2 to 13 odds over Tina Fey (“30 Rock“) at 12 to 1. Dunham and Amy Poehler (“Parks and Recreation“) are tied in third place at 50 to 1. The last slot is tied between Laura Dern (“Enlightened“) and Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie“) at 100 to 1. See full odds rundown here.
Almost all experts (16 of 17) are backing Louis-Dreyfus: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum and Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Mike Cidoni and Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), A.J. Hammer (CNN HLN Showbiz Tonight), Daniel Manu (TelevisionWithoutPity), Melanie McFarland (IMDB), Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Ken Tucker (freelance), and Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times).
Piya Sinha-Roy (Reuters) is the lone hold-out with her choice of Fey.
Six of eight Gold Derby’s editors also bet on Louis-Dreyfus: Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble, David Schnelwar, O’Neil, and Sheehan. Chris Beachum predicts Poehler. Daniel Montgomery picks Fey. See their rankings.
Our Top 24 Users who scored best last year when predicting Emmys are also heavily favoring Louis-Dreyfus (17 of 24). Three of those people choose Poehler, two go for Dern, and one each for Dunham and Fey. See their breakdown. Compare that to what all of our site users think: 59% pick Louis-Dreyfus, 14% predict Fey, and 13% say Poehler. See more.
Episodes submitted to the Emmy judges for each actress are: Dern (“All I Ever Wanted”), Dunham (“Bad Friend”), Falco (“Luck of the Drawing”), Fey (“Hogcock!/Last Lunch”), Louis-Dreyfus (“Running”), and Poehler (“Emergency Response/Leslie and Ben”).
Below: Make your predictions now and try to beat the experts.