Emmy expert Matt Roush out on a limb for Elisabeth Moss, Sofia Vergara …

TV Guide Magazine‘s Emmy expert Matt Roush is currently forecasting a number of repeat wins at the Emmys, including “Modern Family” and “Homeland,” which he expects to defend their respective titles as Best Comedy and Best Drama.

The lead acting winners will also be familiar faces according to his predictions. He gives 2012 Comedy Actress winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep“) the edge to win again this year, which would make her the first woman in 12 years to win this category twice for the same role. And he expects 2008 and 2009 Comedy Actor winner Alec Baldwin to get a farewell hug for the final season of “30 Rock.”

Homeland” stars Damian Lewis and Claire Danes will also repeat their 2012 Drama Actor and Drama Actress victories, while “Downton Abbey‘s” Maggie Smith will be an Emmy-winner for the third year in a row as the Dowager Countess.

But Roush is making bold predictions in several other categories, including the supporting races for comedy, where he expects “Modern Family’s” Sofia Vergara and Ed O’Neill to prevail for the first time.

He gives TV veteran Harry Hamlin best odds to win Drama Guest Actor for “Mad Men“; that would be the first ever acting prize for the show, which has amassed 31 acting bids in six years, but still has not won.

He agrees with a majority of pundits that HBO’s “Behind the Candelabra” will win Best Movie/Miniseries and that star Michael Douglas will claim Movie/Mini Actor for his role as Liberace, but he’s predicting upsets in the other three acting races.

He thinks Sundance’s mystery miniseries “Top of the Lake” will win Movie/Mini Actress (Elisabeth Moss) and Movie/Mini Supporting Actor (Peter Mullan), besting “American Horror Story: Asylum” stars Jessica Lange and James Cromwell.

“Asylum” is also favored to win Movie/Mini Supporting Actress for Sarah Paulson, but Roush is betting on an upset victory by Ellen Burstyn (“Political Animals“).

See his complete predictions here, then check out the predictions of all our Emmy experts.

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