Will Gold Derby TV Award nominations preview Emmys?

Hundreds of Gold Derby users submitted votes for our 10th Annual Gold Derby TV Awards, with nominees to be announced Tuesday. Our savvy users have closely monitored the Emmy race all season long, but will their choices also reflect the tastes of the TV Academy when Emmy nominations are announced on Thursday morning?

If last year’s Gold Derby Awards are any indication, our results may be hit-and-miss when it comes to predicting Emmys. In 2012, Gold Derby and the Emmys agreed on only one out of six Best Comedy Series nominees: “Modern Family.” The ABC laffer would go on to win the Emmy, its third in a row, while our voters opted instead for perennial Emmy also-ran “Community.”

Eight out of 12 lead acting nominees for comedy matched, though the winners differed. The Emmys chose Jon Cryer (“Two and a Half Men“) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep“), while Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory“) and Amy Poehler (“Parks and Recreation“) picked up Gold Derby kudos.

Our users matched the Emmys more closely in the race for Best Drama, where five out of six nominees were the same: “Breaking Bad,” “Downton Abbey,” “Game of Thrones,” “Homeland,” and “Mad Men.” For the last slot the Emmys opted for HBO’s “Boardwalk Empire” while Gold Derby picked the CBS legal drama “The Good Wife.” The winners, again, were different: “Homeland” won the Emmy, while “Breaking Bad” won the Gold Derby Award.

Only six out of 12 lead actors for drama were alike. including Claire Danes (“Homeland”), who won Best Drama Actress at both awards. In fact, out of sixteen acting categories across comedies, dramas, and movies/miniseries, only three actors succeeded at both events: Danes, Movie/Miniseries Actress winner Julianne Moore (“Game Change“), and Movie/Miniseries Supporting Actress winner Jessica Lange (“American Horror Story“).

The winners for variety and reality programming also differed. While the Emmys have honored “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” for 10 consecutive years, the Comedy Central news satire won the last of its three Gold Derby Awards in 2006. Last year, Gold Derby honored “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon” instead.

The Amazing Race” has been similarly dominant in the Emmy race for Best Reality-Competition Program, winning all but one of its 10 nominations. The global competition series has won twice at the Gold Derby Awards (2005, 2009), but last year our users preferred “The Voice.”

How closely will the Emmys follow our lead this year? More importantly, which awards will get it right? Click here for a complete history of the Gold Derby TV Awards and decide if you think our past choices stand the test of time.

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