Will Katy Perry finally win at Grammys for ‘Roar’ or extend her losing streak?

What does Katy Perry have to do to win a Grammy?

When you get on the Recording Academy’s radar, you’re usually bound to win at least once, which is why, with nine unsuccessful nominations over the last five years, Perry is already tied as the 17th worst shutout at the awards. If she loses both of her bids this year, she’ll tie a handful of artists — including Megadeth, Busta Rhymes, and Vanessa Williams — for ninth place with 11 losses.

Grammy voters at least like her more than critics do. Despite mixed reviews for her sophomore album, “Teenage Dream,” they nominated it for Album of the Year in 2010. Then they nominated her for Record of the Year for “Firework” in 2011 and rounded it out with this year’s Song of the Year bid for “Roar.”

A Song win probably isn’t in the cards for Perry this year. “Roar” isn’t known for its writing. Sample lyric:

Louder, louder than a lion
‘Cause I am a champion and you’re gonna hear me roar
Oh oh oh oh oh oh
Oh oh oh oh oh oh
Oh oh oh oh oh oh
You’re gonna hear me roar

What’s more, “Roar” has been criticized for aping Sara Bareilles‘s similarly motivational, and in my opinion better written song “Brave.” It’ll be hard for Perry to escape that comparison given Bareilles’s surprise Album of the Year nod. (Hey Recording Academy, why not single out “Brave” for songwriting instead of its soundalike?)

Lorde‘s “Royalsleads our Song predictions, where “Roar” ranks last with 50/1 odds, so Perry will have to hope she can win Pop Solo Performance instead. She has never won that award either, but not for a lack of trying. “Roar” is her sixth consecutive nomination in that race, including three for Female Pop Solo (“I Kissed a Girl,” “Hot n Cold,” “Teenage Dream”) and three more since the two gendered categories were merged into one (“Firework,” “Wide Awake,” “Roar”).

She’s lucky Adele is sitting this one out: the British singer has handed Perry three of her losses, including the last two in a row. Perry also lost the category to Beyonce (“Halo”) and Lady Gaga (“Bad Romance”), who are absent as well. So is this Perry’s best chance?

Maybe not. She again faces Lorde’s “Royals,” the only nominee in this category also up for Record of the Year. Another rival, Bruno Mars, is also nominated for Record (“Locked Out of Heaven“), but his Pop Solo nomination is for a different song (“When I Was Your Man“).

Pop Solo is also where Perry will have to go head to head against Bareilles’s “Brave,” and if Grammy voters want to award Bareilles somewhere — or take sides in the “Brave” vs. “Roar” debate — this is the place to do it; it’s Bareilles’s only other nomination.

But it’s Justin Timberlake who currently leads our predictions with even odds for “Mirrors,” despite his snubs in the general field. Lorde follows with 13/8 odds. Bareilles is third (14/1).

Perry trails in fourth place (25/1), so she may have to wait awhile longer for Grammy glory after all.

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