Forum posters smackdown: Can ‘Louie’ beat ‘Modern Family’ for Comedy Series Emmy?

Gold Derby founder Tom O’Neil thinks that the FX laffer “Louie” is a strong contender to win Best Comedy Series at the Emmys. 

His rationale:  With “Modern Family” having won three in a row, voter fatigue could mean that Emmy darling Louis C.K., who has the cool factor, is a hot prospect.  Read his full analysis here

What do you think? Tell us in the comments section below or join the steamy discussion on this topic in our message boards. And make your Emmy predictions here

Our forum posters offer their differing opinions on this provocative prediction below.

Renaton kicks off the debate: 

I think DGA, WGA and SAG nominations that the show did not have last year when it got into all those categories is a positive sign. It means the industry is paying closer attention to this show and C.K. than ever before. And they do seem to like him a lot. And frankly, most of the shows that could get that sixth spot aren’t that competitive anymore.

Counters SaraR:

Compelling points, and while I think “Louie” will be nominated, the Academy has shown no indication that they’ve tired of “Modern Family” (unlike most), so I wouldn’t predict any other show besides “MF” just yet.

RELATED: How many ‘Arrested Development’ stars will score Emmy bids?

As Atypical notes:

That’s a bold prediction. I don’t think “Louie” will even be nominated for comedy series, so saying it will both be nominated and win says a lot. I haven’t seen any indication that voters are over “Modern Family” yet, and there are plenty of other places to reward Louis C.K. if they choose to do so (writing again, directing, acting [fingers crossed!], editing, variety, etc.). Comedy series is such another beast entirely. It certainly deserves to be included in the roster, but that doesn’t mean that it will be.

However, Teproc cautions:

I think the problem is that there are too many contenders against “Modern Family,” but no clear challenger. Girls is probably the better positionned of them, but “Arrrested Development,”  “30 Rock” and “Louie” all have a shot, which may induce vote-splitting, letting MF win yet again.

I realize the same argument was used last year to predict a “Mad Men” win, but I think people were overestimating “Downton Abbey”‘s chances back then because of the surprising nominations. “Mad Men” really only had two contenders: “Homeland” and “Breaking Bad.” “MF” will have four, at least if “AD” is any good and if “Louie” makes it in.

And, as JSydel893 points out:

If nominated, which I do believe can happen, Louis C.K. and his producers, if they really, really, really want to win, in my opinion, they should submit:

• Tape A: “Barney / Never” + “Late Show: Part I”
• Tape B: “Late Show: Part II” + “Late Show: Part III”
• Tape C: “Daddy’s Girlfriend: Part I” + “Daddy’s Girlfriend: Part II”

• Directing: “Late Show: Part III”

• Writing: “Barney / Never” (includes a lot of quirkiness, wackiness, and bathroom humor, which had helped C.K. win last year for “Pregnant”) 

RELATEDTom O’Neil: Why I predict ‘Louie’ will win Emmy for Best Comedy Series

More News from GoldDerby