Prediction: Macklemore, Ryan Lewis will edge out Beyonce for Message Video at VMAs

Beyonce – “I Was Here”
Kelly Clarkson – “People Like Us
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis f/ Mary Lambert – “Same Love
Miguel – “Candle In The Sun”
Snoop Lion f/ Drake & Cori B. – “No Guns Allowed”

FRONTRUNNER: Macklemore & Ryan Lewis f/ Mary Lambert – “Same Love”

Before MTV even announced the nominations for Best Social Message Video it seemed obvious that Macklemore and Ryan Lewis‘s pro-gay marriage “Same Love” would be nominated and win. They lead with six nominations, and this category should be one of the easiest to predict.

But before you make a 500-point bet in our prediction center, watch our for Beyonce. A little known fact about Beyonce is that she has won a VMA every year she has been nominated since her solo debut in 2003:

2003 – Female Video/ R&B Video / Choreography – “Crazy In Love”
2004 – Female Video – “Naughty Girl”
2006 – R&B Video – “Check on It”
2007 – Collaboration – “Beautiful Liar”
2009 – Video of the Year / Editing / Choreography – “Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)”
2010 – Collaboration – “Telephone”
2011 – Choreography – “Run The World (Girls)”
2012 – Editing – “Countdown”

Snoop Dogg, now “Reincarnated” as Snoop Lion, has not won a moonman since his 1993 prize for Best Rap Video for “Doggy Dogg World.”

Kelly Clarkson lost last year in this category for “Dark Side” and returns with a consecutive nomination for “People Like Us.”  Clarkson is nevertheless a three-time VMA winner.

This is Miguel’s first VMA nomination, but he will likely not prevail.  He is also nominated this year with J. Cole for Best Hip-Hop Video for “Power Trip.”

I predict Macklemore and Ryan Lewis’s “Same Love” to win, but Beyonce could upset.

Gold Derby’s prediction center agrees. Combining the forecasts of our Editors, Users, and Top 24 Users, it ranks the contenders with the following racetrack odds:

1. Macklemore/Lewis – 2/9
2. Beyonce – 9/1
3. Clarkson – 16/1
4. Snoop Lion – 50/1
5. Miguel – 50/1

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