Prediction: Macklemore and Ryan Lewis are ones to beat for Hip-Hop Video at MTV VMAs

A$AP Rocky f/ 2 Chainz, Drake & Kendrick Lamar – “F**kin’ Problems”
J. Cole f/ Miguel – “Power Trip
Drake – “Started From The Bottom
Kendrick Lamar – “Swimming Pools (Drank)”
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis f/ Ray Dalton – “Can’t Hold Us”

FRONTRUNNER: Macklemore & Ryan Lewis f/ Ray Dalton – “Can’t Hold Us”
TOUGHEST COMPETITION: Kendrick Lamar – “Swimming Pools (Drank)”

Last year, Drake‘s “HYFR” won over stiff competition, beating Jay-Z and Kanye West’s “N****as in Paris” and Nicki Minaj and 2 Chainz‘s “Beez In The Trapz.”  This year, Drake is hoping to join Outkast, Missy Elliott, and Eminem among two-time winners for Best Hip-Hop Video.  Drake’s “Started from the Bottom” is also nominated for Best Direction, and he’s up for Best Video with a Social Message with Snoop Lion for “No Guns Allowed.”

MTV’s Hip-Hop Brain Trust named Kendrick Lamar “The Hottest MC in the Game” in their yearly panel. Kendrick is also nominated for Best Male Video for “Swimming Pools (Drank)” this year, so you can’t count him out.

This is A$AP Rocky’s second nomination at the VMAs; his “Goldie” was nominated last year for Best Editing. J. Cole, meanwhile, celebrates his first VMA nomination for “Power Trip,” his collaboration with Miguel.

Macklemore and Ryan Lewis are the frontrunners to win for “Can’t Hold Us,” which is also nominated for Direction, Cinematography, and Editing. They recently performed the song at this year’s MTV Movie Awards telecast. 

But the obvious frontrunner does not always win. Kanye West is still bitter that his video for “Gold Digger” lost this category to the Black Eyed Peas‘ “My Humps” in 2006.

I predict Macklemore, Ryan Lewis, and Ray Dalton’s “Can’t Hold Us” will win Best Hip-Hop Video, and Gold Derby’s prediction center agrees. Combining the forecasts of our Editors, Users, and Top 24 Users, it ranks the contenders with the following racetrack odds:

1. Macklemore/Lewis – 2/13
2. Drake – 14/1
3. Lamar – 25/1
4. J. Cole – 50/1
5. A$AP Rocky – 100/1

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