Prediction: Miley Cyrus will upset to win Pop Video at MTV VMAs

Miley Cyrus – “We Can’t Stop”
Fun. – “Carry On
Selena Gomez – “Come & Get It”
Bruno Mars – “Locked Out Of Heaven”
Justin Timberlake – “Mirrors

FRONTRUNNER: Miley Cyrus – “We Can’t Stop”
TOUGHEST COMPETITION: Justin Timberlake – “Mirrors”

This is Bruno Mars‘s third time nominated for Best Pop Video.  He was previously nominated in 2010 for his collaboration with rapper B.O.B., “Nothin’ On You,” and in 2011 for his solo hit “Grenade.” Mars has yet to win a moonman and will have other chances with four total nominations this year.

Fun. won Song of the Year at the most recent Grammys for “We Are Young,” but they lost Best Pop Video at last year’s VMAs. This year they get a second chance with a consecutive nomination for “Carry On,” which is also nominated for Best Direction.

Last year, Selena Gomez co-hosted the VMAs pre-show and also performed at the 2012 MTV Movie Awards. She received her first VMA nomination last year for Best Female Video for “Love You Like a Love Song” and returns this year with a Pop Video nomination for “Come & Get It,” the first single off her album “Stars Dance.”  This is her only VMA nomination this year.

Justin Timberlake is a three-time winner in this category’s 14-year history; he is tied for the most wins with Britney Spears. Two of his wins were with his boy band ‘N Sync for “Bye Bye Bye” in 2000 and “Pop” in 2001, and he has one moonman as a solo artist for “Cry Me A River” in 2003.  He is hoping for a second solo Best Pop Video win with his four-time VMA-nominated “Mirrors.”

But don’t count out Miley Cyrus. She is performing on the telecast this year and has four nominations, including Best Female Video, Best Editing, and the recently announced category Song of the Summer for “We Can’t Stop.”

Further evidence of how much MTV likes Miley Cyrus:

1. She won an MTV Movie Award for Best Song from a Movie for “The Climb” from “Hanna Montana: The Movie” in 2009, before which the category had been defunct since 1999.

2. Miley was the first artist to do promos for this year’s VMAs. In 2009, Taylor Swift was the centerpiece of the VMA promos, the same year she won Female Video for “You Belong with Me” and was infamously interrupted by Kanye West.

3. It was just announced that MTV is working on an hour-long Miley Cyrus documentary to debut this fall on MTV to promote her anticipated album “Bangerz.” Expect to see commercials during this year’s VMA telecast.

I predict Miley Cyrus to win Best Pop Video.

But Gold Derby’s prediction center disagrees, ranking Cyrus second to Timberlake. Combining the forecasts of our Editors, Users, and Top 24 Users, it ranks the contenders with the following racetrack odds:

1. Timberlake – 8/15
2. Cyrus – 7/2
3. Mars – 14/1
4. Fun. – 25/1
5. Gomez – 50/1

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