Prediction: Taylor Swift will win Video of the Year at MTV VMAs

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis featuring Wanz – “Thrift Shop
Bruno Mars – “Locked Out Of Heaven
Taylor Swift – “I Knew You Were Trouble
Robin Thicke featuring T.I. & Pharrell – “Blurred Lines”
Justin Timberlake – “Mirrors”

FRONTRUNNER: Taylor Swift – “I Knew You Were Trouble”
TOUGHEST COMPETITION: Justin Timberlake – “Mirrors”

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis and Justin Timberlake lead the 2013 MTV Video Music Awards with six nominations each.

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis are nominated for three separate videos: four bids for “Can’t Hold Us” and one apiece for “Same Love” and “Thrift Shop.” With only one nomination, it is not likely “Thrift Shop” will prevail and our predictors agree, ranking it fourth with overall odds of 14/1.

This is Bruno Mars‘s second nomination for Video of the Year; he was previously nominated in 2011 for “Grenade.”  He returns with “Locked Out of Heaven,” the first single off his second album, “Unorthodox Jukebox,” but it is possible Mars will be locked out of winning again; he ranks last in our predictions with 50/1 odds.

Robin Thicke‘s “Blurred Lines,” featuring T.I. And Pharrell, has been number-one on the Billboard Hot 100 for 10 weeks, making it the number-one tune of 2013 so far and the song of the summer. Our predictors give him the edge to win with 7/5 odds, but the last time a song of the summer won Video of the Year was Rihanna‘s “Umbrella” in 2007.

This is Timberlake’s fifth time nominated for Video of the Year.  He  lost as a member of ‘N Sync for “Bye, Bye, Bye” in 2000 and “Gone” in  2002 . He was also nominated as a solo artist for “Cry Me A River” in 2003 and for “What Goes Around…Comes Around” in 2007, but he has never won the award.

This year he’ll receive the Michael Jackson Video Vanguard Award, which could turn out to be a consolation prize, as happened twice in the past. In 2000, the Red Hot Chili Peppers’ “Californication” and in 2001, U2’s “Beautiful Day” received the Video Vanguard Award after they lost the top prize. Nevertheless, Timberlake ranks a close second in Gold Derby’s predictions with 3/1 odds.

Although Gold Derby ranks her third overall with 10/3 odds, there are three main reasons why I believe Taylor Swift’s “I Knew You Were Trouble” will actually win Video of the Year:

1.  For the past six years a female artist has won Video of the Year: Rihanna in 2007 for “Umbrella,” featuring Jay-Z; Britney Spears in 2008 for “Piece of Me”; Beyonce in 2009 for “Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It)”; Lady Gaga in 2010 for “Bad Romance”; Katy Perry in 2011 for “Firework”; and Rihanna again in 2012 for “We Found Love,” featuring Calvin Harris.

2. Taylor Swift is what is selling in music these days.  Her last two albums sold more than a million copies in their first week. The last artist to accomplish this was Eminem in 2000 and 2002. In those same years, he won Video of the Year for “The Real Slim Shady” (2000) and “Without Me” (2002).

3.  Taylor Swift has not won a VMA since Kanye West‘s infamous on-stage interruption when her “You Belong with Me” defeated Beyonce’s “Single Ladies” for Best Female Video in 2009. By taking the biggest award of the night this year, she will likely make headlines the next day.


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