Prediction: Taylor Swift will fend off Miley Cyrus to win Female Video at MTV VMAs

Miley Cyrus – “We Can’t Stop”
Demi Lovato – “Heart Attack”
Pink f/ Nate Ruess – “Just Give Me A Reason”
Rihanna f/ Mikky Ekko – “Stay
Taylor Swift – “I Knew You Were Trouble”

FRONTRUNNER: Taylor Swift – “I Knew You Were Trouble”
TOUGHEST COMPETITION: Miley Cyrus – “We Can’t Stop”

Madonna is the biggest winner in this category’s 29-year history.  She is the only artist to win three times.

Last year, Rihanna made VMA history by becoming first female artist to win Video of the Year for a second time, for her video “We Found Love.” Despite winning the top prize, however, she lost Best Female Video to Nicki Minaj that night. “Stay” is Rihanna’s third nomination in this race, which she has yet to win, and with only one nomination this year it is unlikely for her to prevail.

Disney alumnae Miley Cyrus and Demi Lovato have come of age and graduated to the mainstream competition of Best Female Video. Last year, Lovato performed on the pre-show and won Best Video with a Message for “Skyscraper.” She returns with her first bid in this category for “Heart Attack,” the first single off her fourth album “Demi.”

Despite two previous nominations for her video “7 Things,” Cyrus has yet to win a VMA.  She’s back this year with four nominations for her viral hit “We Can’t Stop” from her upcoming album “Bangerz.” “We Can’t Stop” has been peaking on the Billboard Hot 100 during the VMA voting period.  Cyrus poses a serious threat to win this year.

Pink and Taylor Swift have each won in this category before. If either wins, she will become the sixth artist to have won Best Female Video more than once, joining two-time winners Janet Jackson, Beyonce, Kelly Clarkson, and Lady Gaga, and aforementioned three-time champ Madonna.

Swift is the frontrunner to win Best Female Video for the second time. The main reason is that she faced much stiffer competition when she last won in 2009, when she bested VMA darlings Beyonce, Clarkson, Gaga, Katy Perry and Pink.

Swift is likely to win Video of the Year as well. Video of the Year and Female Video are not always in sync at the VMAs; if Swift prevails she would be the sixth woman to win both categories in the same year.  The elite five previous winners were Sinead O’Connor (1990), Madonna (1998), Lauryn Hill (1999), Britney Spears (2008), and Lady Gaga (2010).

I predict Taylor Swift will win Best Female Video.

Gold Derby’s prediction center agrees. Combining the forecasts of our Editors, Users and Top 24 Users, it ranks contenders with these racetrack odds:

1. Swift — 2/5
2. Cyrus — 8/1
3. Pink — 12/1
4. Rihanna — 16/1
5. Lovato — 33/1

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