How often do SAG Awards winners repeat at Oscars?

The Screen Actors Guild, which numbers more than 100,000, has been bestowing competive awards since 1994. Despite the actors branch making up 20% of the 6,000 Oscar voters, only two-thirds of SAG champs have won over the academy as well. Compare that to the 90% success rate of the Directors Guild of America at presaging which helmer will prevail at the Oscars. 

Over the 19-year history of the SAG Awards, guild members have handed out 76 trophies. Their choices have forecast the Academy Awards winners just 51 times — 53 if you count Benicio del Toro, who won in lead at SAG in 2000 for “Traffic” and supporting at the Oscars and Kate Winslet who did the reverse, winning supporting at SAG in 2008 for “The Reader” and lead at the Oscars. 

Here is the year-by-year breakdown of how many SAG winners repeated at the Oscars.

1994: 3 out of 4
1995: 2 out of 4
1996: 3 out of 4
1997: 4 out of 4 (Kim Basinger and Gloria Stuart tied in supporting)
1998: 2 out of 4
1999: 3 out of 4
2000: 2 out of 4 (Del Toro in different categories)
2001: 1 out of 4
2002: 1 out of 4
2003: 3 out of 4
2004: 4 out of 4
2005: 3 out of 4
2006: 3 out of 4
2007: 2 out of 4
2008: 3 out of 4 (Winslet in different categories)
2009: 4 out of 4
2010: 4 out of 4
2011: 3 out of 4
2012: 3 out of 4

What will be the batting average for the SAG Awards this year? 

Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave“) is tied with Robert Redford (“All is Lost“) in our Oscar predictions chart for Best Actor but enjoys a clear lead at SAG. Vote for who you think will win over SAG voters at the bottom of this post.

Likewise for Oprah Winfrey (“The Butler“) who is jockeying with “12 Years” ingenue Lupita Nyongo for the Supporting Actress Oscar but is far in front for the SAG Award.

And while “12 Years’ villain Michael Fassbender is ahead in the supporting race at SAG, he has fallen behind Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club“) at the Oscars

However, Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine) remains the frontrunner for Best Actress at both the Oscars and SAG

Who do you think is going to win Best Actor at the SAG Awards. Vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. 

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