Poll: Does BAFTA win = Oscar for Jennifer Lawrence?

On the eve of the BAFTA Awards, Jennifer Lawrence (“American Hustle“) seemed doomed at the Oscars. Twenty-five of our 26 pundits pegged Lupita Nyongo (“12 Years a Slave“) to nab the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress, but now – wow – Lawrence just pulled off a spectacular upset in the same category at Britain’s Oscars..

What does that mean for the Oscar race? Over the past 10 years, every Academy Award winner who was also nominated at BAFTA won on Oscar night. Overlap: that’s 8 victors. The two exceptions: Helena Bonham Carter (“The King’s Speech”) won BAFTA in 2010 when Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”) wasn’t on the list and Thandie Newton (“Crash”) prevailed in 2005 when Rachel Weisz (“The Constant Gardner”) wasn’t in the category (she was nominated in lead).

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But, wait … let’s not forget that Lupita won the SAG Award, which also has a high agreement rate with Oscar. Over the past 10 years there were only two exceptions. In 2007, Ruby Dee (“American Gangster”) beat eventual Oscar champ Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton”) and Kate Winslet trounced Oscar’s Best Supporting Actress Penelope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”). But Winslet won SAG for “The Reader,” which was the same film that earned her an Oscar in the lead race, so maybe that counts as agreement?

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Winslet also bagged the Golden Globe in supporting for “The Reader,” which causes problems making comparisions to Oscar, too. It was one of three times that the Globe champ didn’t align exactly with the academy’s choice for supporting actress over the past 10 years. The other two exceptions: In 2007, Cate Blanchett (“I’m Not There”) beat Tilda Swinton and, in 2004, Natalie Portman (“Closer”) triumphed over Blanchett (“The Aviator”). This year the Globe went to Jennifer Lawrence.

Are you confused yet? What’s next?

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