Did the guilds predict Drama Series Emmy nominations?

While the industry guilds are excellent guides to predicting the eventual Oscar winners, they are less certain when it comes to forecasting the Emmy champs. While the producers’ and casting directors’ guilds share the June to May cycle of the Emmys, the others operate on the calendar year. 

However, they do tip off changes in industry support in broad terms and in specific categories. Let’s take a look at how the six Emmy nominees for Best Drama Series fared first with the guilds.

Join the fierce Emmy fights going on
right now in our red-hot message boards

Game of Thrones” leads the Emmy nominations with 19 bids after being nominated by the most guilds (12). While it was nominated the last two years by the writers’ guild, it was neligible there this year as the required paperwork was not submitted on time. The only other guild that “Game of Thrones” was not recognized by was the Camera Operators Society, the only one of the 14 guilds without an equivalent Emmy. 

While the first season saw helmers reap DGA and then Emmy bids, no directors did so in either the second or third year. However, this year it was back in contention at the DGA and the Emmys followed suit. Having previously been snubbed, the series earned its first cinematography nominations from both the ASC and the Emmys last year and expanded to two slots at each this year.

Breaking Bad” reaped a series best 16 Emmy nominations after earned the most nominations (22), with multiple bids from many groups, including the writers where it got four. After being double-nominated by the Emmys and ACE  in both 2013 and 2012 for its editing, the guild gave it four (of eight) slots this year and the Emmys followed with three (of five). The show also picked up its first casting nomination after winning the SAG award for Best Drama Ensemble. The ADG nominated the show for the first time this year and “Breaking Bad” won with the makeup guild. 

Last year, the pilot episode of “House of Cards” earned a WGA nomination and the show won Best New Series from this guild. However, it was snubbed for writing at the Emmys. This year, it had three WGA nominations and did reap an Emmy bid for writing. In all, it numbered 10 nominations from seven guilds. 

Downton Abbey” had contended as one of the five nominees for Best Drama Series at the PGA but we failed to predict it as one of the six Emmy nominees. It also won one of its two SAG bids (Maggie Smith) and contended with the art directors and costumers. 

Our Drama Series odds favored instead the PGA-snubbed “Mad Men” as well as PGA nominee “Homeland.” “Mad Men,” which had picked up just four nominations from four guilds, made the cut with Emmy voters. However, “Homeland,” with the third-most guild nominations (11 from seven guilds), did not. Why was this?

After all, “Homeland” but fell to just four Emmy nominations this year. Timing played a part in this disparity: the Emmys are voted on in the summer while the guild awards were in the winter. The season three finale of “Homeland” finale aired on Dec. 15. 

The timetable for the guild awards meant that “True Detective,” which first aired on HBO on Jan. 12 of this year, was ineligible for consideration in the last set of kudos. Expect it to figure into the upcoming guild awards. 

This issue of scheduling could explain why “The Newsroom” in 2013 and “The Walking Dead” in 2011 performed much better with the guilds than the Emmys. Jeff Daniels was the only guild nomination for “The Newsroom” that translated to the Emmys last year. The first season had contended at the guild level for: art direction, casting, directing, picture editing, sound editing and writing. Likewise, the guilds endorsed the first season of “The Walking Dead” for casting, directing, picture editing, sound editing, visual effects and writing with only sound editing and visual effects also earning Emmy nominations.

Follow Gold Derby on FacebookTwitterInstagram, Tumblr, iTunes and YouTube

Below, watch Gold Derby Editors’ predictions slugfest for Best Drama Series. We analyze the pros and cons of each nominated program and declare the winner to be “Breaking Bad.”

Do you agree or disagree? Be sure to cast your own votes in this race using our easy drag-and-drop menu.

More News from GoldDerby