In our new prediction slugfest, Gold Derby Editors declare Best Comedy Supporting Actor to be a race between the two “Modern Family” guys — Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ty Burrell — and last year’s surprise winner Tony Hale (“Veep“). But what about wild card Fred Armisen (“Portlandia“), who plays about a dozen characters in his episode entry?
Joining me in our latest video (watch below) are Daniel Montgomery and Charles Bright as we analyze the episodes submitted to Emmy judges as examples of their best work from the past TV season. Ferguson chose “Message Received,” Burrell danced to “Spring-a-Ding-Fling,” Hale bled for “Crate” and Armisen went with “Pull-Out King.” Other nominees: Andre Braugher for “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” (“Christmas”) and Adam Driver for “Girls” (“Two Plane Rides”).
Both “Modern Family” guys ended up helping each other out in their episode submissions, which could benefit them in the voting as academy members rank the nominees from one to six, with the lowest-scoring actor being the winner. Ferguson and Burrell could both be near the top of all ballots. But we warn you to watch out for Hale, who has a doozy of an episode in which his character gets a nosebleed and shares countless laughs with President-to-be Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
As for the also-rans, we found Armisen’s episode to be lacking impact, Braugher’s to be missing range and Driver’s to be short on laughs. Don’t forget, in this particular supporting race oftentimes the most hilarious, bombastic performance wins, which is precisely how Hale scored last year and how over-the-top Eric Stonestreet (“Modern Family”) earned two of these (2010, 2012).
Gold Derby’s official combined racetrack odds currently find Braugher in first place with 11/10 odds, Hale in second place with 10/3 odds, Ferguson in third place with 9/2 odds, Burrell in fourth place with 14/1 odds, Armisen in fifth place with 50/1 odds and Driver in last place with 100/1 odds.
See all of our Editors’ predictions ranked per category here. Compare them to forecasts by the Emmy Experts here and by our Top 24 Users here. See the rankings and racetrack odds generated when all predictions are combined.
Do you agree with our Editors’ predictions for Best Comedy Supporting Actor? Make your own predictions below the video and then sound off in the comments section or join the discussion in our Emmys forum. See the full list of Emmy episode submissions here.