‘Normal Heart’ predicted to win five Emmys Monday night, ‘Breaking Bad’ will win four

According to our racetrack odds, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users, and All Users, HBO’s telefilm “The Normal Heart” will be the top winner during Monday night’s Primetime Emmys telecast with five wins.

For our complete predictions by category, click here.

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Set during the early years of the AIDS outbreak in New York City, “Normal Heart” is the frontrunner to win Best TV Movie, Best Movie/Mini Writing for famed playwright and activist Larry Kramer, Best Movie/Mini Directing for TV vet Ryan Murphy, and supporting awards for Julia Roberts and Matt Bomer.

The final season of “Breaking Bad” will also claim multiple prizes, though we’re not quite predicting a sweep for the AMC crime drama. It’s forecast to win Best Drama for the second year in a row, in addition to repeat victories for supporting actors Aaron Paul and Anna Gunn, and Best Drama Writing for the acclaimed episode “Ozymandias,” penned by Moira Walley-Beckett.

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But star Bryan Cranston, already a three-time Drama Actor champ (2008-2010) for his role as Walter White, isn’t expected to join them. A fourth win would tie the record in the category currently held by Dennis Franz (“NYPD Blue”), but our predictors are betting on Matthew McConaughey for “True Detective” instead.

True Detective” will also defeat “Breaking Bad” for Best Drama Directing; Cary Joji Fukunaga is nominated for the episode “Who Goes There,” which featured an action-packed six-minute tracking shot.

Also expected to win twice is FX’s anthology series “Fargo,” which will take Best Miniseries and Best Movie/Mini Actor for Billy Bob Thornton. But it has strong potential to win even more: our predictors place it a close second to spoil for Movie/Mini Supporting Actress (Allison Tolman), Movie/Mini Writing, and Movie/Mini Directing.

We’re anticipating that the TV academy will spread the wealth in the comedy races, with the seven categories likely to be divided among seven shows.

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Modern Family” is the frontrunner to win Best Comedy Series for a record-tying fifth year in a row, while lead-acting prizes will go to two-time defending champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep“) and past champ Ricky Gervais (“Derek“).

Supporting honors will also go to a pair of previous winners: Andre Braugher (“Brooklyn Nine-Nine“) and Allison Janney (“Mom“). Janney also won just last weekend for her guest role in the Showtime drama “Masters of Sex.”

Louis C.K. is favored to win Best Comedy Writing for the “Louie” episode “So Did the Fat Lady.” It would be his second writing win for the series and his fifth writing win overall.

Best Comedy Directing will go to Oscar-winning actress Jodie Foster for the “Orange is the New Black” episode “Lesbian Request Denied,” which also recently won Uzo Aduba the Comedy Guest Actress prize at last week’s Creative Arts awards.

Best Reality Competition Series will go to “The Voice” again; it shocked last year by finally breaking the winning streak of “The Amazing Race,” which had won the category for nine of the previous 10 years.

The Colbert Report” also ended a long winning streak last year; sister series “The Daily Show” had won Best Variety Series 10 times in a row until “Colbert” finally usurped the king in 2013. “Colbert” is expected to win again.

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