Golden Globe winners for Best Film Drama Actress have 50/50 chance at Oscar

The Golden Globes have given separate awards for dramas and musicals/comedies since the 1950s, but even though the Oscars tend to favor dramatic performances, only about half of all Golden Globe winners for Best Film Drama Actress are subsequently crowned by the academy.

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In the past 64 years, the Globe for Drama Actress has matched Oscar 50% of the time (32 out of 64). However, there was a three-way Globes tie in 1988, so technically only 48% of Globe winners in the category have gone on to claim Oscar (32 out of 66); one of the three winners during that anomalous ’88 race did turn out to be the academy’s choice: Jodie Foster in “The Accused.”

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But the academy still greatly prefers dramatic performances. Another 16 Oscar champs for Best Actress were nominated for Drama Actress at the Golden Globes, but didn’t win. That’s still more than the number of Musical/Comedy Actress winners at the Globes who have won Oscar (15 out of 66).

In the last 10 years, six Drama Actress Globe winners went on to repeat at the Oscars, while 31 out of 50 nominees matched the academy’s choices (62%).

This year’s Globe contenders for Best Drama Actress are also major contenders for Oscar. Julianne Moore (“Still Alice“) previously won a Globe for playing Sarah Palin in the HBO telefilm “Game Change,” as well as a special ensemble award for Robert Altman‘s “Short Cuts.”

Reese Witherspoon (“Wild“) eared a trio of nominations for Best Musical/Comedy Actress, winning as country star June Carter in “Walk the Line” in 2005, but she has yet to be nominated for Drama Actress. Marion Cotillard (“Two Days, One Night” and “The Immigrant“) also won Musical/Comedy Actress for a biographical role: singer Edith Piaf in “La Vie en Rose.”

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Rosamund Pike (“Gone Girl“) and Felicity Jones (“The Theory of Everything“) are looking for their first Globe nods, while Shailene Woodley (“The Fault in Our Stars“) could return after picking up a bid in the supporting race for “The Descendants.”

Hilary Swank (“The Homesman“) won this category twice (“Boys Don’t Cry” and “Million Dollar Baby”), while Jessica Chastain (“The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby“) prevailed once (“Zero Dark Thirty“).

Who do you think will win? And will the result match Oscar? Use our drag-and-drop menu below to predict Best Drama Actress:

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