Almost 400 Gold Derby readers forecasted this year’s MTV Video Music Awards champs, logging more than 5,000 predictions. To see how you fared, log in to your account and under your profile picture click MTV Video Music Awards 2014.
The VMAs were full of surprises this year, so much so that our top user, BruceTsai, scored 69%. He foresaw the surprise wins for Katy Perry (Female Video, “Dark Horse“), Ariana Grande (Pop Video, “Problem“), and Arcade Fire (Art Direction, “Reflektor“).
Next best among users were erfrank and rafaeltxeira with 57% each. Another 12 users predicted 50% of the winners, which was better than any of our editors.
I scored highest among editors with 44%, followed by Marcus Dixon and Rob Licuria, both with 38%.
Most of us were stumped by Best Direction: only 1% of users predicted the win by DJ Snake‘s “Turn Down for What.” Artist to Watch was another confounding race: just 3% of users expected Fifth Harmony‘s upset victory for “Miss Movin On.”
Our overall prediction averages for Best Male Video (Ed Sheeran‘s “Sing“), Female Video (Perry’s “Dark Horse”), Pop Video (Grande’s “Problem”), and Art Direction (Arcade Fire’s “Reflektor”) were also below 5%.
The easiest category to predict was Beyonce‘s win for Best Message Video for “Pretty Hurts“: 96% of predictors saw that coming. 79% of us also correctly pegged her and Jay-Z as the winners for Best Collaboration (“Drunk in Love“).
Overall, our editors narrowly outscored our users, 40% to 33%.