By the time the Oscars finally get around on March 2, the acting races should be fairly easy to predict thanks to the horde of precursor prizes given out in the months leading up to the big ceremony.
Below, our handy-dandy breakdown of who’s won what so far this season. I’ve also given my predictions here for each BAFTA acting race since those kudos — another telling precusor of the Oscars — don’t take place until Feb. 16.
One caveat worth mentioning: The Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards hedge their bets by having separate categories for lead comedy performances, which is where recent Oscar champs like Jean Dujardin (“The Artist,” 2011) and Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook,” 2012) won before making it onstage at the Dolby Theater.
Christian Bale (“American Hustle“), Bruce Dern (“Nebraska“), Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street“), Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave“), Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club“)
Golden Globe Drama: McConaughey
Golden Globe Comedy: DiCaprio
Critics Choice Drama: McConaughey
Critics Choice Comedy: DiCaprio
SAG Winner: McConaughey
BAFTA Prediction: Since McConaughey was snubbed by BAFTA, he should be worried about taking home the Oscar, as no one’s claimed that prize without a BAFTA nom since Denzel Washington (“Training Day”) in 2001. British actor Ejiofor should win the BAFTA, making the Oscars a three-horse race between McConaughey, DiCaprio and Ejiofor.
Golden Globe Drama: Blanchett
Golden Globe Comedy: Adams
Critics’ Choice Drama: Blanchett
Critics’ Choice Comedy: Adams
SAG Winner: Blanchett
BAFTA Prediction: Aussie actress Blanchett is taking this trophy in a cakewalk. She’s already a BAFTA favorite with two wins — Lead Actress (“Elizabeth,” 1998) and Supporting Actress (“The Aviator,” 2004) — and has nearly unbeatable 1/10 odds from our Experts, Editors and Users which translates to 90% of the vote.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi (“Captain Phillips“), Bradley Cooper (“American Hustle“), Michael Fassbender (“12 Years a Slave“), Jonah Hill (“The Wolf of Wall Street“), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club“)
Golden Globe Winner: Leto
Critics’ Choice Winner: Leto
SAG Winner: Leto
BAFTA Prediction: Irish actor Fassbender should find luck at the BAFTAs thanks to Leto being snubbed. This is Fassbender’s third BAFTA nomination after previously losing the Rising Star Award in 2009 and Lead Actor for “Shame” in 2011, so it’s his time.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins (“Blue Jasmine“), Jennifer Lawrence (“American Hustle“), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave“), Julia Roberts (“August: Osage County“), June Squibb (“Nebraska“)
Golden Globe Winner: Lawrence
Critics’ Choice Winner: Nyong’o
SAG Winner: Nyong’o
BAFTA Prediction: Mexican-born, Kenyan-raised Nong’o has my vote for two BAFTAs this year: Supporting Actress and Rising Star Award. Her biggest competition is Lawrence but she lost the BAFTA last year for her Oscar-winning performance in “Silver Linings Plabook” to Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour“).