Do most Oscar nominations make either ‘American Hustle’ or ‘Gravity’ a lock for Best Picture?

American Hustle” and Gravity” reaped a leading 10 Oscar nominations each, including bids for Best Picture. Their main rival for the top prize — “12 Years a Slave” — is right behind with nine nominations, four fewer than we predicted it to score. (See the complete list of nominations here.)

Oscar history holds that one of the films with the most nominations is likely to win Best Picture. Indeed, since the standardization of nominees across the board in 1945, the contender with the most bids has claimed Best Picture prize 46 times out of 68 years. That translates to a 68% success rate.

Of those 46 victories, 28 of them were for movies that had the most nominations on their own (such as “All About Eve,” “The English Patient,” and “Chicago”) while 18 were for films that had tied for the most nominations (such as “The Godfather,” “Amadeus,” and “The Hurt Locker”).

But don’t count out “12 Years a Slave” just yet.

After all, there have been 22 years since 1945 when the film with the most nominations did not win Best Picture. Just last year, “Lincoln” reigned supreme with 12 nominations, but lost Best Picture to “Argo” which, with seven bids in all, wasn’t even in second place for the nominations count. “Life of Pi” had 11 nominations while “Les Miserables” and “Silver Linings Playbook” had eight each.

And, in 2011, Martin Scorsese‘s “Hugo” led with 11 nominations but lost Best Picture to “The Artist,” which had 10 nominations in all.


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