Oscar experts: 5 of 9 Best Picture nominees will win NOTHING

The Oscar experts have spoken, and they’re in agreement that only four of this year’s nine Best Picture nominees — “Gravity,” “12 Years a Slave,” “Dallas Buyers Club” and “American Hustle” — will take home at least one trophy on March 2.

As for the other five nominees — “The Wolf of Wall Street,” “Captain Phillips,” “Nebraska,” “Philomena” and “Her” — thanks for showing up, but this just wasn’t your year.

Are our Experts putting too much faith in only four movies and neglecting all of the other contenders?

Something to consider: Last year, “Beasts of the Southern Wild” was the only one of the nine Best Picture nominee to leave the Dolby Theater empty-handed, establishing 2012 as the epitome of a “sharing the wealth” year. 

However, in 2011 there were four such Oscar losers amongst the nine nominees: “The Tree of Life,” “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” “Moneyball” and “War Horse.”

In 2010, five of the 10 Best Picture nominees were skunked: “127 Hours,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “True Grit” and “Winters Bone.”

And in 2009, three of the 10 nominees came away with nothing: “A Serious Man,” “An Education” and “District 9.”

In other words, there is no discernable pattern in the four years since the number of nominees was changed from a set five films.

Are the Experts are wrong to put all of their eggs in only four baskets? Yes, if this is a repeat of last year but if we’re in for another year like 2010, they could be onto something.

Below, the film-by-film breakdown of how each Best Picture nominee is expected to fare, listed in descending order by how many of our 26 Oscarologists are predicting the victories.

Experts predict 7 Oscars wins:
Best Visual Effects – 26 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Director Alfonso Cuaron – 25 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Cinematography – 25 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Sound Editing – 25 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Sound Mixing – 25 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Score – 24 Experts (2/13 odds)
Best Editing – 22 Experts (1/4 odds)

12 Years a Slave
Experts predict 3 Oscars wins:
Best Adapted Screenplay – 26 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Supporting Actress Lupita Nyongo – 25 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Picture – 20 Experts (4/9 odds)

Dallas Buyers Club
Experts predict 3 Oscars wins:
Best Supporting Actor Jared Leto – 26 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Actor Matthew McConaughey – 24 Experts (2/13 odds)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling – 24 Experts (2/13 odds)

American Hustle
Experts predict 1 Oscars win:
Best Original Screenplay – 14 Experts (1/1 odds)

The Wolf of Wall Street
Experts predict 0 Oscars wins.

Captain Phillips
Experts predict 0 Oscars wins.

Experts predict 0 Oscars wins.

Experts predict 0 Oscars wins.

Experts predict 0 Oscars wins.

Do you agree with our Oscarologists’ predictions? (I sure don’t!) Sound off in the comments section below after voting for Best Picture in our easy drag-and-drop menu.

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