Marcus Dixon: 4 crazy Oscar predictions that will make you question my sanity

In the cutthroat world of predicting the Oscars, there are followers and there are leaders. I suppose, then, that would make me a folleader, as half the time I copy other predictions and half the time I come up with my own out-of-the-box theories to help keep the race interesting.

Here are my four craziest 2013 Oscar predictions that will either make you question my sanity or have you worshipping me as America’s Next Top Oscarologist. We’ll find out how right or wrong I am on March 2 when Ellen DeGeneres hosts the 86th Academy Awards on ABC.

(And some good news for those who’ve had enough: I promise not to mention Woody Allen and/or Dylan Farrow for the entire length of this piece!)

Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor for “The Wolf of Wall Street

Why it’s not THAT crazy:
Performance of his career? Check. Already won several precursors? Check. Appears in more than one Oscar-nominated movie this year? Check. Silver screen heartthrob? Check.

I could easily be referring to frontrunner Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club“), but DiCaprio actually fits the exact same bill this year. While McConaughey got most of the early headlines, don’t forget that DiCaprio also won a Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award, only in the Comedy/Musical Actor races. Jean Dujardin (“The Artist“) won that same Globe two years ago before claiming Oscar gold.

Sure, DiCaprio was snubbed by SAG, but as Tom O’Neil reminds us during his newest podcast with Entertainment Weekly’s Thom Geier, the DVDs of late-release “The Wolf of Wall Street” may not have reached SAG voters in time. That happened to Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained“) last year, and he still wound up winning an Oscar.

And more good news for DiCaprio: He’s nominated for the Best Actor BAFTA next week while McConaughey was snubbed. That could be his chance to finally step out of McConaughey’s shadow and into the spotlight. If he does, watch how fast everyone else will be flocking to make DiCaprio their #1 choice.

Gold Derby rankings:
DiCaprio is currently in third place behind McConaughey and Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave“).

Jennifer Lawrence will win Best Supporting Actress for “American Hustle

Why it’s not THAT crazy:
Yes, I know, Lupita Nyong’o is the favorite to win this race, but let’s not forget our Oscar history.

Of the 14 previous films to get nominated in all four acting races, as “American Hustle” has done, only two of those flicks — “My Man Godfrey” (1936) and “Sunset Boulevard” (1950) — didn’t win at least one trophy. (See the photo gallery of all such films here.)

History is very much on “American Hustle’s” side to win an acting race, and Lawrence is the obvious choice because fans and critics are in agreement that last year’s Best Actress winner for “Silver Linings Playbook” absolutely stole this movie. Will academy voters be too timid to reward Lawrence back-to-back Oscars? The answer is no, just ask Tom Hanks (“Philadelphia” in 1993 and “Forrest Gump” in 1994).

Gold Derby rankings:
Lawrence is currently in second place behind Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave“).

Captain Phillips” will win Best Editing

Why it’s not THAT crazy:
Everyone seems to be banking on “Gravity” to win this prize in a cakewalk, but hold on, wasn’t “Gravity” just left in “Captain Phillips’s” stardust at Friday’s ACE Eddie Awards? That was a very telling declaration by the American Cinema Editors, who opted not to follow the PGA/DGA herd by rewarding “Gravity’s” editor/director Alfonso Cuaron.

And when you think about it, the many hostage scenes in “Captain Phillips” are actually made more intense thanks to the noticeable editorial cuts, compared to those elongated (and beautiful) tracking shots of “Gravity.”

Gold Derby rankings:
“Captain Phillips” is currently in second place behind “Graviy”

The Square” will win Best Documentary Feature

Why it’s not THAT crazy:
Of the five nominees (four of which are available to stream on Netflix), “The Square” is the most relevant and feels the most important. Some of the other docs may have the early buzz and the accolades from our Oscar experts, but this is the only nominee that is so ripped-from-the-headlines it was updated months after its original January 2013 premiere to incorporate new material.

The other contenders may be too dark, too sappy, or even too boring to compete against this Netflix documentary about the ongoing Egyptian revolution.

Gold Derby rankings:
“The Square” is currently in third place behind “The Act of Killing” and “20 Feet from Stardom.”

What do you think of these predictions? Make your own for Best Actor below using our easy drag-and-drop menu.

And tell me what you think in our comments sections. Keep in mind that I can still change my choices in the Gold Derby predictions center — especially if any of your comments manage to convince me that you’re right and I’m wrong.

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