Oscars predictions update: J.K. Simmons & Edward Norton up, Mark Ruffalo down

At first, this year’s Best Supporting Actor Oscar looked like a race between J.K. Simmons as a monstrous music teacher in “Whiplash” and Mark Ruffalo as a tragic Olympian in “Foxcatcher,” but now Edward Norton just surged up our charts for portraying a rowdy stage actor in “Birdman.” At this point all three films have been seen by most of our Experts, who increasingly favor Simmons. See their latest rankings.

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In late August, Norton was in sixth place in our experts’ predictions with 16/1 odds as a movie star who clashes with Michael Keaton in a stage adaptation of “What We Talk About When We Talk About Love.” But Norton has leapt forward since then. Only two experts are currently predicting Norton to win, compared to five for Ruffalo, but our other experts are ranking Norton so high collectively that he has now tied Ruffalo in second place with 7/2 odds. Both still trail Simmons, who gets 9/4 odds.

Norton might have the category’s strongest overdue-factor. He had a career breakthrough with the 1996 legal thriller “Primal Fear,” which earned him an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actor. Then in 1998, he picked up a Best Actor bid as a Neo-Nazi in “American History X.” But he hasn’t been nominated since then, despite roles in admired films like “Fight Club,” “25th Hour,” “The Illusionist,” and “Moonrise Kingdom.”

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Take a look at the graph below to see how Norton has taken off in recent weeks (click the graph to see more).

And see more of our experts’ Best Supporting Actor predictions (click the chart to see more).

Will this finally be Norton’s year? Use our drag-and-drop menu to make your predictions below.

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