Oscars poll: Which of this year’s nominees is most likely to be invited to join academy?

Of the 20 acting nominees at this year’s Oscars, 15 were members of the motion picture academy and able to vote for themselves. (See the full list of these, including their years of admission to the academy, at the bottom of this post.)

Sometime in the next few months, the academy will release the list of the newest wave of film professionals invited to join. Most of the recent Oscar nominees who aren’t already academy members will likely receive invitations, though there are no guarantees. Academy membership decisions are often quite puzzling, much like the Academy Awards themselves. 

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Based on their fairly long and impressive film resumes, three of the five acting nominees should have little trouble passing the academy’s admissions test:

Michael Fassbender, Best Supporting Actor nominee for “12 Years a Slave”

Sally Hawkins, Best Supporting Actress nominee for “Blue Jasmine”

June Squibb, Best Supporting Actress nominee for “Nebraska”

However, the prospects for the other two acting nominees might be a little more uncertain, due to their limited film credentials.

Barkhad Abdi, Best Supporting Actor nominee for “Captain Phillips” 

Lupita Nyongo, Best Supporting Actress winner for “12 Years a Slave”

Since Nyongo actually took the prize and has at least one other film credit to her name (“Non-Stop,”) she might have a good shot at being extended an invitation. Jennifer Hudson was similarly asked to join after being named Best Supporting Actress of 2006 for “Dreamgirls,” despite that being her film debut.

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Abdi may have a more difficult time receiving the endorsement of the scademy’s membership committee, since he currently has just a single film credit to his name. While past Oscar nominees Keisha Castle-Hughes (2003’s “Whale Rider”) and Gabourey Sidibe (2009’s “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push” by Sapphire”) were each invited after making only one film, they had leading roles. However, Quvenzhane Wallis was not invited last year following her Best Actress bid for “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” However, her age (nine years at the time) was probably a key factor in her exclusion.

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If Abdi is left out, he could still make the academy roster in the future. Below are just five of the recent Oscar competitors who weren’t asked to join the organization in the months following their nominations, but did receive invitations within the next few years:

Michelle Williams, 2005 Best Supporting Actress nominee for “Brokeback Mountain” (Invited 2009

Casey Affleck, 2007 Best Supporting Actor nominee for “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Invited 2009)

Amy Ryan, 2007 Best Supporting Actress nominee for “Gone Baby Gone” (Invited 2009)

Saoirse Ronan, 2007 Best Supporting Actress nominee for Atonement” (Invited 2010)

Ellen Page, 2007 Best Actress nominee for “Juno” (Invited 2011)

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Below, the 15 acting nominees this year who were already Oscar voters arranged by their year of admission. 

Bruce Dern, Best Actor nominee for “Nebraska” (1973)

Meryl Streep, Best Actress nominee for “August: Osage County” (1980)

Julia Roberts, Best Supporting Actress nominee for “August: Osage County” (1990)

Leonardo DiCaprio, Best Actor nominee for “The Wolf of Wall Street” (1995)

Judi Dench, Best Actress nominee for “Philomena” (1999)

Christian Bale, Best Actor nominee for “American Hustle” (2000)

Cate Blanchett, Best Actress winner for “Blue Jasmine” (2000)

Sandra Bullock, Best Actress nominee for “Gravity” (2000)

Jared Leto, Best Supporting Actor winner for “Dallas Buyers Club” (2005)

Amy Adams, Best Actress nominee for “American Hustle” (2006)

Chiwetel Ejiofor, Best Actor nominee for “12 Years a Slave” (2007)

Bradley Cooper, Best Supporting Actor nominee for “American Hustle” (2011)

Jennifer Lawrence, Best Supporting Actress nominee for “American Hustle” (2011)

Jonah Hill, Best Supporting Actor nominee for “The Wolf of Wall Street” (2012)

Matthew McConaughey, Best Actor winner for “Dallas Buyers Club” (2012)

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