Oscar experts: ‘Boyhood,’ Michael Keaton, Julianne Moore remain far in front

Our Oscars Experts saw three more contenders last week — “American Sniper,” “Big Eyes” and “Selma.” It was the latter, a historical drama by Ava DuVernay about a key moment in the civil rights struggle, that made the biggest impression on them. As you can see from the chart above, the film shot up in our rankings for Best Picture. However, “Boyhood” is still favored to win by a wide margin. Still left to screen stateside are “Unbroken,” which world premiered in Sydney Monday, and “Into the Woods.”

Mary Milliken of Reuters has just entered her predictions, bringing our panel up to twenty-five. Below, we detail her picks and compare them to the first wave of Oscarologists to make their forecasts. Click here to see charts revealing how all of our Experts rank the contenders in all top categories according to likelihood of winning. And click on each underlined category below to see the individual Experts predictions for that race. Then make your own predictions here. Be the best and win bragging rights AND $1,000. 

Boyhood” (odds of 9/2) remains far out front with the support of 14 of our 25 pundits: Thelma Adams (Thelmadams.com), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Michael Musto (Out.com), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times), Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

Unbroken” (odds of 15/2) is still in second place with seven Oscarologists picking it to prevail: Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), and Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby).

The Imitation Game” has two boosters — Jenelle Riley (Variety) and Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) — as does “Birdman” — Milliken and Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere). 

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Michael Keaton (“Birdman“) still leads the Best Actor race, as he has all awards season long. While Milliken is now in his corner, he has the votes of 13 of our Experts; that is down by one from last week and gives him odds of 9 to 4. Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything“) is still backed by eight Oscarologists and has odds of 13 to 5. Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Imitation Game“) is backed by two Experts while Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher“) and David Oyelowo (“Selma“) now have one vote apiece. 

Milliken is also predicting two other favorites — lead actress Julianne Moore (“Still Alice“) and J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash“) — to prevail. However, she is sticking with “Birdman” for Director (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) and Supporting Actress (Emma Stone).

Our 25 experts are predicting “Boyhood” to win five Academy Awards in all, including Best Director (Richard Linklater), Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette), Original Screenplay and Editing. 

Interstellar” is expected to take home four Oscars: Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. 

Birdman” will claim two Academy Awards — Best Actor (Michael Keaton), Cinematography — as will “Into the Woods” (Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling).

Still Alice” is predicted to win Best Actress for four-time Oscar bridesmaid Julianne Moore while Whiplash” should net an Oscar for Supporting Actor J.K. Simmons.

Unbroken” is forecast to win Adapted Screenplay and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” will claim Production Design.

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Click here to see how they rank contenders in top Oscar races. Click here to see the rankings and odds generated by combining the experts’ predictions.

Below: The experts’ latest collective rankings and odds for the top six categories (click on each category to see more detailed results). 

Best Picture
1.  “Boyhood” – 9/2
2.  “Unbroken” – 15/2
3.  “Birdman” – 15/2
4.  “The Imitation Game” – 8/1
5.  “The Theory of Everything” – 12/1
6.  “Selma” – 14/1
7.  “Gone Girl” – 16/1
8.  “Foxcatcher”– 16/1
9.  “Whiplash” – 25/1
10. “Interstellar” – 50/1

Change from last week: “Unbroken” has dropped back slightly (from 13/2 to 15/2). “Selma” enters in the sixth slot. And “Foxcatcher” and “Interstellar” have swapped spots and odds. 

Best Director
1. Richard Linklater, “Boyhood” – 9/4
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Birdman” – 10/3
3. Angelina Jolie, “Unbroken” – 11/2
4. Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher” – 14/1
5. Christopher Nolan, “Interstellar” – 16/1

Change from last week: Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”) has strengthened his position while Bennett Miller (“Foxcatcher”) and Christopher Nolan (“Interstellar”) have seen their odds lengthen. 

Best Actor
1. Michael Keaton, “Birdman” – 9/4
2. Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything” – 13/5
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game” – 11/2
4.  David Oyelowo, “Selma” – 8/1
5. Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher” – 9/1

Change from last week: David Oyelowo (“Selma) is a new entry, bumping Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher”) to the fifth slot and pushing Bradley Cooper (“American Sniper”) off the chart. 

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore, “Still Alice” – 19/10
2. Reese Witherspoon, “Wild” – 10/3
3. Rosamund PIke, “Gone Girl” – 6/1
4. Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything” – 8/1
5. Amy Adams, “Big Eyes” 10/1

Change from last week: Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) has strengthened her lead while Amy Adams (“Big Eyes”) has seen her odds lengthen yet again. 

Best Supporting Actor
1. J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash” – 8/5
2. Edward Norton, “Birdman” – 7/2
3. Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher” – 11/2
4. Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood” – 6/1
5. Josh Brolin, “Inherent Vice”/Robert Duvall, “The Judge”/Miyavi (“Unbroken)/Tom Wilkinson (“Selma”) – 50/1

Change from last week: Miyavi (“Unbroken) and Tom Wilkinson (“Selma”) crack the top five for the first time while Albert Brooks (“A Most Violent Year”) gets bounced. 

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood” – 15/8
2. Laura Dern, “Wild” – 5/1
3. Emma Stone, “Birdman” – 11/2
4. Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game” – 6/1
5. Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods” – 12/1

Change from last week: The lineup remains the same, but there have been slight upticks for Arquette, Dern and Knightley. 

What are your early Oscar predictions? Make your picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the Best Actor champ using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000 prize. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. See who’s in our current Top 24 and their early Oscar predictions. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict Oscar nominations last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. Register/log in to your account so you can also compete to predict the Golden Globes, Grammys, “Survivor,” “The Voice,” “Dancing with the Stars” and more.

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