Oscar Experts: ’12 Years a Slave’ pulls ahead in Best Picture race


Our Experts continue to add their predictions for the Oscars and the tide has shifted strongly towards “12 Years a Slave” over “American Hustle” to win Best Picture.

On Tuesday morning, the vote was six to five in favor of “12 Years.” By the end of the day, it had picked up three more votes. And, at midday Wednesday,  it has a dozen Oscarologists expecting it to take the top Oscar on March 2

This surge in support gives “12 Years a Slaveleading odds of 8 to 15 (up from 8/11) while “American Hustle” is now at 10/3 (down from 2/1). 

The 12 Experts predicting “12 Years a Slave” to prevail are: 
Michael Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes)
Mark Harris (Grantland)
Dave Karger (Fandango)
Tariq Khan (Fox News) — he switched from “American Hustle”
Michael Musto (Gawker, Out.com)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Steve Pond (The Wrap)
Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com)

The four who still favor “American Hustle” are:
Edward Douglas (Coming Soon)
Thom Geier (EW)
Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby)
Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood)

“12 Years a Slave” is coming off a great week, winning the Golden Globe for Best Drama last Sunday, earning nine Oscar nominations on Thursday morning, claiming the Critics’ Choice prize for Best Picture on Thursday night and sharing the PGA Award with “Gravity” this Sunday. 

“American Hustle” took Best Comedy/Musical at the Globes, shared the lead for most Oscar nominations with “Gravity” at 10 apiece, and claimed the Ensemble trophy at Saturday’s SAG Awards. 

Despite those 10 Oscar noms and sharing that prize at the PGA, “Gravity” does not have any first place votes. With four second-place finishes, its odds of winning the Best Picture Oscar are 50/1. 

The other six nominees for Best Picture —  “Captain Phillips,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Her,” “Nebraska,” “Philomena” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” — each have odds of 100/1. 

Review the individual predictions of our  Experts here.  And be sure to check out the Experts’ collective rankings and racetrack odds

Who do you think is going to win Best Picture? Vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Come back and change your predictions as often as you like till Oscar night, March 2. 

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