Here’s why the Brains Tribe can win ‘Survivor Cagayan’

According to the predictions at Gold Derby, Woo Hang from the Brawn Tribe is best positioned to take out the title of sole Survivor for “Survivor: Cagayan” with 5-to-2 odds, followed by Jefra Bland from the Beauty Tribe with 3-to-1 odds. These seem like surprising frontrunners considering their lack of screen time and strategic moves in the first two weeks of the season.

There’s one quibble I have from Gold Derby’s odds: Our Users are underrating the potential of  Brain Tribe players, who all rank in the last half of the board.

There’s still time before “Survivor” airs on Wednesday night for you to make your predictions here and wager points against the current odds. Forecast winners week to week and at season’s end and win prizes that include your own webcam chat with host Jeff Probst plus $100 Amazon gift certificate. Read contest rules here.

Woo seems firmed up with tribe mates Cliff Robinson and Lindsey Ogle, but spy-shack builder Tony Vlachos has an idol, has formed a bond with Sarah Lacina and he’s reached out to Trish Hegarty. We will need to see the Brawn Tribe go to tribal council to see where the numbers ultimately fall (and if Tony causes havoc with his idol), but Woo has yet to prove himself perceptive enough to be the one to beat in the game. Many of our Users are betting on Sarah, who has not alienated herself from anyone yet. Sarah is currently third at Gold Derby with 5-to-1 odds.

Jefra has positioned herself well in the game for sure, being in the group of four that dictated last week’s vote and also has close ties to Jeremiah Wood and Alexis Maxwell. However, Jeremiah at 15-to-2 odds seems just as well positioned with close ties to Jefra and LJ McKanas (who has an idol) and seems to be more in control of the game.

Then we come to the Brain Tribe. Now this tribe has been an unmitigated disaster in performance and dynamics. However sometimes this can pay off later in the game. In “Survivor Philippines” we saw the remnants of a decimated tribe rise up in Malcolm and eventual winner Denise. This was for two reasons: they had a chance to winnow the chaff from a dysfunctional tribe, eliminating variables that could be trouble later down the line. And in a game starting with three tribes, a merge usually gives more room for movement. This is where a strong group of 2 or 3 can become swing votes and take reigns of the game. 

Things could look bad for Spencer Bledsoe, who is at 16-to-1 odds, because he is the only male and was out of the loop on the last vote. However, I’m not too worried. The last vote seemed more a vote against Garrett than a vote for J’Tia Taylor who the tribe will need to cut loose if they go back to tribal as she is a challenge and camp life viability. Tasha Hegarty, who is at 28-to-1 odds has been able to successfully orchestrate a blindside. However she has not been able to show the restraint needed to win a social game. Kass McQuillen, who is at 50-to-1 odds, is clearly the most underrated player. She and Spencer have shown an impressive awareness of others and the game. They have also been in control of their behavior and comments. Perhaps like Malcolm and Denise they can rise from the ashes of early defeat to claim that sole title.

My Top 5 Power Rankings:
1. Sarah
2. Spencer
3. Kass
4. Jeremiah
5. Tasha

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