‘Survivor: Cagayan’: Who’s up? (Spencer) Who’s down? (Woo in trouble)

This week on “Survivor: Cagayan” we saw the three tribes become two with a switch. These are always big game-changing weeks as allainces are divided, some are isolated and new opportunities are given to those on the ropes. So how did this affect all the players in the game?

Here’s my rundown of whose stock went up and whose went down. This list is ranked by improvement, not neceasily likelihood of winning.


1. Spencer Bledsoe
With all three former Brain Tribe members ending up in the same tribe (with three Beauty members targeting each other), they are now in control of the tribe and can work toward taking the reins of the game. Last week I laid out why Brains were very close to being in the box seat. For no one was this a bigger improvement than for Spencer who almost got voted out last episode and was clearly third on the Brains Tribe. He’s now sitting pretty in one of the game’s tightest alliances and is one of the savviest players out there.

2. Kass McQuillen
Gone from dysfunctional tribe to one of the power players in a new one. See above comments about Brains Tribe.

3.Tasha Hegarty
Gone from dysfunctional tribe to one of the power players in a new one. See above comments about Brains Tribe.

4.Morgan McLeod
Morgan is still in a lot of trouble and is completely at the mercy of Spencer/Tasha/Kass. However, she was going to be the next boot in the Beauty Tribe. Now the power is out of the hands of the players who were gunning for her and she may not be seen as a big threat.

5. Trish Hegarty
Trish has the numbers in her new tribe. She has a new opportunity to make inroads with LJ and Jefra and has not lost any people she was working with.

6.LJ McKanas
He was in a decent spot in the Beauty Tribe, but it was a little uncertain where he was in the pecking order. Having survived the last vote with his idol unplayed means he has brought Trish and Tony into his group and probably won’t need to worry about his fate until after the merge when he’ll reunite with former beauty members.


7. Jefra Bland
She was solidly in the Beauty four and would not have been a threat after the merge. Because of that her stock has dropped a little since the status quo has been interrupted and now the fate of those she was in an alliance with is in the hands of another tribe. Also, she didn’t make the bond with the Brawn members that LJ was able to. However, she looks safe for now and still won’t be a huge threat moving forward.

8. Tony Vlachos
He’d established himself well in the Brawn Tribe and looked like he had the numbers. He still does, but there are more balls in the air since he may have given LJ an upper hand by keeping the biggest threat from the Beauty Tribe alive in the game. LJ has connections on the other tribe.

9. Alexis Maxwell
Went from in a solid four with Beauty Tribe to having her fate in the hands of Spencer/Tasha/Kass. She was savvy to be the first to approach them about forming a new four, which very likely could save her.

10. Sarah Lacina
She was totally safe in the Brawn Tribe and was probably playing the role of silent leader (she did seem to have sway with throwing the challenge the week before). Now she’s on a tribe with no one she has played with in the past. With former Beauties targeting one another, she should be safe and she’ll have post-merge options, but her short term survival is now not close to a guarantee.

11. Jeremiah Wood
He dosn’t have the numbers. He’s a big threat in the game. There is a good chance Spencer/Tasha/Kass will strike if they go to tribal council. Compare that to two weeks ago when he was the player making the call about who went home.

12. Lindsey Ogle
Things didn’t look good for her in her former tribe. Now without the support or buffer of Cliff, things look even more bleak.

13. Woo Hang
Last episode Woo was looking safe — tight with Lindsay and Cliff but also in the loop with Sarah’s group. Now he’s on the outs and the person who was including him in the Tony/Trish alliance got sent to the other tribe.

My Top 5 Power Rankings:

This is liklihood of winning

1.      Spencer
2.      Kass
3.      Tasha
4.      Sarah
5.      LJ

Let us know what you think: Before “Survivor” airs next Wednesday night, please make your predictions here and wager points against the current odds. Forecast winners week to week and win prizes that include your own webcam chat with host Jeff Probst plus $100 Amazon gift certificate. Read contest rules here.

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