See how you did predicting the Tony Awards nominations

Congratulations to our site User J F Petsche, who earned 95% correctly predicting the 2014 Tony Awards nominees. He tied with seven other Users — Ted_Stevenson, jkramer, patmerck, LarryGevirtz, Jonathan May, alias571, and Casey Clark — but best used his 500 and 200 point bets to rack up for an overall point score of 6,046.

The rules allowed for five nominees in three of the four production categories (both Play races and Best Musical) as they were packed with more than nine contenders. However, the vote tally from the 46 members of the nominating committee was only close enough in the Best Play race to merit five nominees. So, anyone who predicted four of those five scored perfect in that category.

Complete list of 2014 Tony Awards nominations

Conversely, with only four musical revivals eligible, that category did not need to have a full complement and the remounting of the 1998 production of “Cabaret” was snubbed by the committee. Unfortunately, as our prediction center was set up to expect four nominees in this category, it is not possible to score perfect here. Hence, the slew of users who scored 95% despite predicting ALL the nominees.

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Over 350 Gold Derby readers forecasted this year’s Tony nominees, logging almost 1,500 predictions. To see how you fared, log in to your account and under your profile picture click Tony Awards Nominations 2014.

Click here for a breakdown of all top scorers. To see how we fared predicting each category, click here.

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While most of our top choices (“Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder,” “Beautiful” for example) made the Best Musical lineup, Woody Allen‘s Broadway version of “Bullets Over Broadway” did not. And, as mentioned above, “Cabaret” surprisingly did not round out the field among musical revivals.

Among original plays, our top three picks (“All the Way,” “Mothers and Sons,” “Casa Valentina) were nominated, but our fourth place contender “The Realistic Joneses” was not. All four of our predicted play revivals — “The Glass Menagerie,” “A Raisin in the Sun,” “Twelfth Night,” and “The Cripple of Inishmaan” — made the cut.

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A total of 39 people did better than our best Editors — David Schnelwar and Marcus Dixon finished with 84% right. Next up were Daniel Montgomery and myself with 71% correct.

Gold Derby’s very own Paul Sheehan was best among the 13 Experts, achieving 95% correct (essentially a perfect score based on explanation above). Michael Musto (Out, Gawker) was in second place with 90%. The third spot was a tie between Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Matt Windman (amNY), and Wayman Wong (Talkin’ Broadway) with 89%.

Melissa Bernardo (Entertainment Weekly), Andy Humm (Gay USA) and Martin Denton (NY Theatre) tied for sixth place with 84% accuracy. Up next are Andy Lefkowitz (Theatermania) and Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly) at 83%. Roger Friedman (Showbiz 411) and Doug Strassler (NY Press) then tied at 78% correct. The last spot is held by David Sheward (TheaterLife) at 76%.

Collectively, the Experts were best overall with 85%, followed by the Editors with 78%, and the Users with 74%.

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